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The Effects of Monetary Policy on Mortgage Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Saty Patrabansh

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • William M. Doerner

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • Samuel Asin

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

Abstract

Economic events over the past decade have changed central bank policies in the United States and around the world. The housing and financial markets experienced significant changes as the markets first surpassed historical highs and then underwent a recession grave enough to draw comparison with the Great Depression. To spur recovery, the Federal Reserve first lowered short-term interest rates to near-zero and eventually embarked on several phases of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) to lower long-term interest rates and mortgage rates. This paper describes the evolution of the LSAP program and analyzes how interest rates and mortgage rates changed during that time. Both the long-term interest rates and mortgage rates reached historical lows in the post crisis period, primarily due to the Federal Reserve Board's accommodative policies. Two econometric approaches—an event study and a time series model—estimate the market response during each phase of the LSAP program and provide projections of mortgage rates under different shock assumptions. Results suggest that early tapering announcements helped reset interest rates and mortgage rates upwards and any rise in long-term interest rates resulting from unanticipated events (whether related to tapering or not) could lead to further increases in mortgage rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Saty Patrabansh & William M. Doerner & Samuel Asin, 2014. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Mortgage Rates," FHFA Staff Working Papers 14-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    • Handle: RePEc:hfa:wpaper:14-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew J Fieldhouse & Karel Mertens & Morten O Ravn, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar U.S. Housing Credit Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1503-1560.
    2. Gang Wang, 2019. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing Announcements on the Mortgage Market: An Event Study Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, February.
    3. Samit Ahlawat, 2019. "Evaluation of Mortgage Default Characteristics Using Fannie Mae’s Loan Performance Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 589-616, November.
    4. Metrick, Andrew, 2021. "The Rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - Module Z: Overview," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 3(1), pages 447-503, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset purchase; QE; Federal Reserve; interest rates; mortgage rates; financial projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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