Chinese Saving Dynamics: The Impact of GDP Growth and Dependent Share
AbstractChina's national saving rate rose rapidly in the 2000s after declining through the late 1990s. These dynamics are not readily explained by the precautionary motive, the institutional distribution of income, or reform related processes in general. Rather, we find a compelling explanation lies with GDP growth fluctuations and demographic shifts. We estimate a vector autoregressive model for the period 1978-2008, then generate in-sample simulations that successfully replicate the 2000s run-up in the saving rate. Our out of sample forecasts show the saving rate dropping in the 2010s as the dependent share falls and GDP growth moderates.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa in its series Working Papers with number 2010-11R.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 29 Jul 2010
Date of revision: 11 Jan 2012
Chinese Saving Dynamics; GDP Growth; Dependent Share; Savings Rate;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guonan Ma & Zhou Haiwen, 2009. "China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position," BIS Working Papers 286, Bank for International Settlements.
- Marcos Chamon & Eswar Prasad, 2008.
"Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?,"
IMF Working Papers
08/145, International Monetary Fund.
- Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
- Chamon, Marcos & Prasad, Eswar, 2007. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," IZA Discussion Papers 3191, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Marcos Chamon & Eswar Prasad, 2008. "Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," NBER Working Papers 14546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007.
"The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2006. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," NBER Working Papers 12723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The determinants of household saving in China: a dynamic panel analysis of provincial data," Working Paper Series 2007-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2006. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," ISER Discussion Paper 0676, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2007.
- Guonan Ma & Wang Yi, 2010.
"China’s High Saving Rate: Myth and Reality,"
CEPII research center, issue 122, pages 5-40.
- Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 1999.
"What Drives Private Saving Across the World?,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
47, Central Bank of Chile.
- Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980.
"Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Chad Zanocco, 2010. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1259-1261.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ben Trevino).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.