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The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs

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  • Lucio Sarno
  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models are commonly used to investigate the effect of structural shocks on economic variables. The identifying restrictions imposed in many of these exercises have been criticized in the literature. This paper extends this literature by showing that if the SVAR includes one or more variables that are efficient in the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, the identifying restrictions frequently imposed in SVARs cannot be satisfied. We argue that our analysis will likely apply to VARs that include variables that are consistent with the weaker form of the efficient market hypothesis, especially when the data are measured at the monthly or quarterly frequencies, as is frequently the case.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2003-032.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2004, 86(1), pp. 49-60
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-032

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Keywords: Macroeconomics ; Econometric models;

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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the flow of funds," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  4. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
  5. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1983. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  7. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Garfinkel, Michelle R & Thornton, Daniel L, 1995. "The Information Content of the Federal Funds Rate: Is It Unique?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 838-47, August.
  10. Thornton, Daniel L., 2001. "The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1717-1739, September.
  11. Arturo Extrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "Dynamic inconsistencies: counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models," Working Papers 98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  12. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
  13. Pesaran, M. H., 1981. "Identification of rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 375-398, August.
  14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juvenal, Luciana, 2011. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: Are they real or nominal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 849-876, September.
  2. Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News," LEM Papers Series 2004/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  3. Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore & Shane M. Sherlund, 2006. "GSEs, mortgage rates, and secondary market activities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2007. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," Working Paper Series 0790, European Central Bank.
  5. Gultekin Isiklar, 2005. "Structural VAR identification in asset markets using short-run market inefficiencies," Econometrics 0501001, EconWPA, revised 02 Jan 2005.
  6. Ida Wolden Bache, 2006. "Assessing the structural VAR approach to exchange rate pass-through," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 309, Society for Computational Economics.

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