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Mittelfristige Inflationsprognose: Das Dilemma der Zwei-Säulen-Strategie der EZB

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  • Stéphane Sorbe
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Ein Ziel der EZB ist es, die Preisstabilität in der Eurozone zu gewährleisten. Beim Streben nach Preisstabilität zielt die EZB darauf ab, Preissteigerungsraten von unter, aber nahe 2% sicherzustellen. Mit dieser quantitativen Definition will die EZB eine Verankerung der Inflationserwartungen in der Eurozone erreichen, die dazu beitragen soll, die Volatilität in der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung zu verringern. Neben der Definition von Preisstabilität besteht die geldpolitische Strategie aus einer umfassenden Beurteilung der Risiken für die Preisstabilität, die sich aus der monetären und der wirtschaftlichen (nicht-monetären) Analyse (sog. Zwei-Säulen-Strategie) zusammensetzt. In diesem Beitrag werden die derzeitigen Risiken für die Preisstabilität in der Eurozone näher untersucht. In enger Anlehnung an die Strategie der EZB werden ein monetärer (Geldmenge M3) und ein nicht-monetärer (Nominallöhne) Indikator betrachtet und zur Inflationsprognose im Euroraum verwendet. Es zeigt sich, dass beide Indikatoren gute Prognoseeigenschaften für die mittelfristige Inflationsentwicklung aufweisen. Ihre jüngsten Entwicklungen führen allerdings zu völlig unterschiedlichen Einschätzungen der Gefahren für die Preisstabilität, was die EZB vor ein Dilemma stellt.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 60 (2007)
Issue (Month): 11 (06)
Pages: 16-24

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:11:p:16-24

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Keywords: Inflation; Prognose; Geldpolitik; Preisniveaustabilität; Zentralbank; Geldmenge; Lohn;

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
  2. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2007. "Is there a structural break in equilibrium velocity in the euro area?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308654, HAL.
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