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Management of Oil Revenues: Has That of Azerbaijan Been Prudent?

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  • Gurbanov, Sarvar
  • Nugent, Jeffrey B.
  • Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Abstract

To help explain the common failure of oil or other natural resource exporting countries to diversify into industry, it has been common to trace this failure to real exchange rate appreciation. This has also been done in Azerbaijan. However, because Azerbaijan has devoted so much of its oil revenues to government investment, Azerbaijan provides a suitable case for examining an alternative link through government investment. This study applies the ARDL cointegration method to quarterly time series data on oil prices, government capital formation, non-oil exports and non-oil GDP to estimate the long run relationships linking oil prices to government investment expenditures and further to generation of non-oil GDP. The results show that despite the massive government investment expenditures, extremely little non-oil production of the tradable type has been generated, calling attention to the need for policy reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurbanov, Sarvar & Nugent, Jeffrey B. & Mikayilov, Jeyhun, 2017. "Management of Oil Revenues: Has That of Azerbaijan Been Prudent?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 1-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:270909
    DOI: 10.3390/economies5020019
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    Cited by:

    1. Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada & Wilhelm Loewenstein & Yadulla Hasanli, 2021. "Production linkages and dynamic fiscal employment effects of the extractive industries: input-output and nonlinear ARDL analyses of Azerbaijani economy," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(1), pages 3-18, April.
    2. Fakhri Hasanov & Fuad Mammadov & Nayef Al-Musehel, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Elchin Suleymanov & Farhad Rahmanov & Cihan Bulut & Fakhri Hasanov, 2018. "The Impact of the Oil Price Fluctuations on the Economic Policy in Oil-Exporting Former Soviet Union Countries," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(1), pages 111-122, March.
    4. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2018. "De-Industrialization Patterns of Azerbaijan: Potential Outcomes of Dutch Disease Syndrome," EconStor Preprints 227733, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Sugra Humbatova, 2023. "The Impact of Oil Prices on State Budget Income and Expenses: Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 189-212, January.
    6. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil windfall gains; Dutch Disease;

    JEL classification:

    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

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