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Macroeconomic Factors and Oil Futures Prices: A Data-Rich Model

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  • Zagaglia, Paolo

    ()
    (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University)

Abstract

I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from these series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices.

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File URL: http://www2.ne.su.se/paper/wp09_07.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stockholm University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers in Economics with number 2009:7.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 10 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2009_0007

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Postal: Department of Economics, Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46 8 16 20 00
Fax: +46 8 16 14 25
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Web page: http://www.ne.su.se/
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Keywords: Crude Oil; Futures Markets; Factor Models;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5111, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Julien Chevallier & Benoit Sevi, 2014. "A fear index to predict oil futures returns," Working Papers 2014-333, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  4. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is There Co-Movement of Agricultural Commodities Futures Prices and Crude Oil?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114626, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
  6. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2011. "Macro factors in oil futures returns," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11663, Paris Dauphine University.
  7. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.

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