Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the carbon price during the two phases of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). More specifically, relying on daily EU allowance futures contracts, we test whether the carbon price drivers identified for Phase I still hold for Phase II and evolve toward a long-run relationship. Using cointegration techniques and accounting for the 2006 structural break in the carbon market, we show that while a cointegrating relationship exists for both phases of the EU ETS, the nature of this equilibrium relationship is different across the two subperiods, with an increasing role of fundamentals in Phase II. Deriving equilibrium values, we show that the carbon price tends to be undervalued since the end of 2009.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
EU ETS; Carbon price; Energy prices; Cointegration;
Other versions of this item:
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I Versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 2011-09, CEPII research center.
- Anna Creti & Pierre-André Jouvet & Valérie Mignon, 2011. "Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I versus Phase II Equilibrium?," Working Papers 1106, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Keppler, Jan Horst & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria, 2010. "Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3329-3341, July.
- Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
- Hintermann, Beat, 2010.
"Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
- Beat Hintermann, 2009. "Allowance Price Drivers in the First Phase of the EU ETS," CEPE Working paper series 09-63, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Frank Convery & Christian De Perthuis & Denny Ellerman, 2008. "The European Carbon Market In Action: Lessons From The First Trading Period. Interim Report," Working Papers 0802, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Considine , Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2009. "Substitution and technological change under carbon cap and trade : lessons from Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4957, The World Bank.
- George Milunovich & Roselyne Joyeux, 2007. "Testing Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in European Carbon Markets," Research Papers 0701, Macquarie University, Department of Economics.
- Emilie Alberola & Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier, 2008. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme : Disentangling the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-12, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
- Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich, 2010. "Testing market efficiency in the EU carbon futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 803-809.
- Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
- Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2009. "The impact of carbon prices on generation-cycling costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1204-1212, April.
- Ellerman,A. Denny & Convery,Frank J. & de Perthuis,Christian With contributions by-Name:Alberola,Emilie With contributions by-Name:Buchner,Barbara K. With contributions by-Name:Delbosc,Anaïs, 2010. "Pricing Carbon," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521196475, December.
- Bredin, Don & Muckley, Cal, 2011. "An emerging equilibrium in the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 353-362, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Wilfried Rickels & Dennis Görlich & Gerrit Oberst, 2010. "Explaining European Emission Allowance Price Dynamics: Evidence from Phase II," Kiel Working Papers 1650, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Keppler, Jan Horst & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria, 2010. "Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5269, Paris Dauphine University.
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît, 2008.
"The EU emissions trading scheme : The effects of industrial production and CO2 emissions on carbon prices,"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/4223, Paris Dauphine University.
- Emilic Alberola & Julien Chevallier & Benoit Cheze, 2008. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme: the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 93-126.
- Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Wilfried Rickels & Vicki Duscha & Andreas Keller & Sonja Peterson, 2007. "The determinants of allowance prices in the European Emissions Trading Scheme - Can we expect an efficient allowance market 2008?," Kiel Working Papers 1387, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990.
"Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
- Tom Doan, . "FM: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using Fully Modified Least Squares," Statistical Software Components RTS00069, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
- Vincent Bertrand, 2013. "Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with non-equally efficient power plants," Working Papers 1309, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria, 2014. "Dynamics of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 02/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Toppinen, Anne, 2013. "Impact of the carbon price on the integrating European electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1236-1251.
- Harrison Fell & Beat Hintermann & Herman R. J. Vollebergh, 2013. "Carbon Content of Electricity Futures in Phase II of the EU ETS," CESifo Working Paper Series 4367, CESifo Group Munich.
- Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "Carbon Financial Markets: a time-frequency analysis of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 03/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Kimmo Ollikka & Piia Aatola & Markku Ollikainen, 2012. "Informational Efficiency of the EU ETS market ? a study of price predictability and profitable trading," Working Papers 28, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
- Vicente Medina Martínez & Ángel Pardo Tornero & Roberto Pascual, 2012. "The timeline of trading fricions in the European Carbon Market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.