Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO

Contents:

Author Info

  • Albu, Lucian Liviu

    ()
    (Research Professor, Institute for Economic Forecasting)

Abstract

One of the most significant impediments for short-term forecasts is the frequency of publishing GDP. At present, national institutes of statistics are publishing officially registered GDP only quarterly. In our study, we tried to build a composite indicator based on usually monthly data and to use it in order to obtain short-term forecasts for economic activity at national level. This indicator could be useful taking into account that actually there is no synthetic indicator to describe the short-run dynamics of economic activity. Thus, such an estimating model we are proposing for the Romanian economy is coming from the last results in this field, especially from the OECD methodology. Moreover, to validate the main hypotheses of the estimating model for the composite indicator in the case of the Romanian economy we used the quarterly data and, as benchmark indicator was considered the quarterly published GDP. Using certain models based on composite indicators (leading indicators, coincidence indicators, and post-cycle indicators), beside other models to analyse high frequency time series and to obtain sort-term forecasts (such as principal component method, so-called virtual monthly GDP method or various interpolating methods), it can result in richer information for the business environment which in modern times founds itself in an accelerated process of change.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_08/rjef2_08_3.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 5 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 44-50

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:2:p:44-50

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172
Phone: 004 021 3188148
Fax: 004 021 3188148
Email:
Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: business cycle indicators; coincident and leading indicators; composite index;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Croux, Christophe & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
  3. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  4. Scutaru, Cornelia & Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2005. "Output Gap And Shocks Dynamics. The Case Of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 2(4), pages 25-43.
  5. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2006. "A dynamic model to estimate the long-run trends in potential GDP," MPRA Paper 3708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1991. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  10. Keith R. Phillips, 2004. "A new monthly index of the Texas business cycle," Working Papers 0401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  11. Stanica, Cristian, 2004. "Aplicatii privind exprimarea PIB-ului potential trimestrial," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar 040203, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Albu, Lucian-Liviu & Ciuiu, Daniel, 2009. "A method to evaluate composite performance indices based on variance-covariance matrix," MPRA Paper 19979, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2009.
  2. Dan Nicolae & Valentin Pau & Mihaela Jaradat & Mugurel Ionut Andreica & Vasile Deac, 2010. "Mathematical Model for Forecasting and Estimating of Market Demand," Post-Print hal-00768770, HAL.
  3. Lucian-Liviu Albu & Vasile Dinu, 2009. "How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(Number Sp), pages 675-683, November.
  4. S. V. S. Dixit & Maxwell Opoku-Afari, 2012. "Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency Gdp Data," IMF Working Papers 12/119, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Savoiu, Gheorghe & Dinu, Vasile & Ciuca, Suzana, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment based on Country Risk and other Macroconomic Factors. Econometric Models for Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 39-61, March.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:2:p:44-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.