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A dynamic model to estimate the long-run trends in potential GDP

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Albu, Lucian-Liviu

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Abstract

To estimate long-run growth based on the so-called potential GDP became a constant preoccupation among economists. However, one remaining problem in every long-run growth model is to estimate a persistent trend in labour productivity outside of it, in order to avoid the implicit circular relationship between actual productivity growth and potential level of production. Coming from recent literature on natural rate of unemployment estimation we used a specific methodology in order to estimate NAIRU in case of post-communist economies and based on it to evaluate the potential GDP. Taking into account that the “classic” Hodrick-Prescott method is in fact equivalent to an interpolation procedure, we used in our experiment other three filters demonstrating very similar output. Moreover, we conceived a simple autonomous model in order to estimate the growth of a so-called “pure” productivity independently from the actual level of employment and to compare its dynamics with that of natural rate of unemployment.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3708.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3708

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Related research
Keywords: natural rate of unemployment; potential GDP; pure productivity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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  1. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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  2. Daniel Daianu & Lucian-Liviu Albu, . "Strain and the Inflation - Unemployment Relationship: A Conceptual and Empirical Investigation," Ace Project Memoranda 96/15, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    Other versions:
  3. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in Transitional Economies: A theoretical and empirical investigation," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081103, Institute for Economic Forecasting. [Downloadable!]
  5. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2001. "Evolution Of Inflation-Unemployment Relationship In The Perspective Of Romania’S Accession To Eu," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-23, December.
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