IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/3708.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A dynamic model to estimate the long-run trends in potential GDP

Author

Listed:
  • Albu, Lucian-Liviu

Abstract

To estimate long-run growth based on the so-called potential GDP became a constant preoccupation among economists. However, one remaining problem in every long-run growth model is to estimate a persistent trend in labour productivity outside of it, in order to avoid the implicit circular relationship between actual productivity growth and potential level of production. Coming from recent literature on natural rate of unemployment estimation we used a specific methodology in order to estimate NAIRU in case of post-communist economies and based on it to evaluate the potential GDP. Taking into account that the “classic” Hodrick-Prescott method is in fact equivalent to an interpolation procedure, we used in our experiment other three filters demonstrating very similar output. Moreover, we conceived a simple autonomous model in order to estimate the growth of a so-called “pure” productivity independently from the actual level of employment and to compare its dynamics with that of natural rate of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2006. "A dynamic model to estimate the long-run trends in potential GDP," MPRA Paper 3708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3708
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3708/1/MPRA_paper_3708.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    2. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2001. "Evolution Of Inflation-Unemployment Relationship In The Perspective Of Romania’S Accession To Eu," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-23, December.
    3. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in Transitional Economies: A theoretical and empirical investigation," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081103, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    5. Daniel Daianu & Lucian-Liviu Albu, "undated". "Strain and the Inflation - Unemployment Relationship: A Conceptual and Empirical Investigation," Ace Project Memoranda 96/15, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 44-50, June.
    2. Lucian-Liviu Albu & Vasile Dinu, 2009. "How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(Number Sp), pages 675-683, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucian-Liviu Albu, 2006. "Trends in inflation-unemployment relationship before and after accession to EU," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 1(3), pages 25-33, September.
    2. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    4. Llaudes, Ricardo, 2005. "The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment," Working Paper Series 441, European Central Bank.
    5. George Chouliarakis & Mónica Correa-López, 2014. "A fair wage model of unemployment with inertia in fairness perceptions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 88-114, January.
    6. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2004. "Challenges of the “New Economy” for Monetary Policy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 27-36, Spring.
    7. Meijers, Huub, 2006. "Diffusion of the Internet and low inflation in the information economy," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, March.
    8. Bharat Trehan, 2003. "Productivity shocks and the unemployment rate," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 13-27.
    9. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "ICT diffusion and potential output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 231-234, May.
    10. Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Monica Correa-Lopez & George Choullarakis, 2012. "A Fair Wage Model of Unemployment with Inertia in Fairness Perceptions," Working Papers 1203, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    12. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2005. "A Dynamic Model To Estimate The “Pure” Productivity," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 2(1), pages 30-34.
    13. Christopher L. ERICKSON & Daniel J.B. MITCHELL, 2007. "Monopsony as a metaphor for the emerging post-union labour market," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 146(3-4), pages 163-187, September.
    14. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "Effets de la diffusion des technologies de l’information sur la croissance potentielle et observée," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 81(1), pages 203-230, Mars-Juin.
    15. Jane E. Ihrig & Jaime R. Marquez, 2003. "An empirical analysis of inflation in OECD countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 765, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Jorge E. Restrepo, 2006. "Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 361, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Jonathan Temple, 2002. "The Assessment: The New Economy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 18(3), pages 241-264.
    18. Bogdan MUNTEANU, 2016. "Youth Unemployment In Eu: A Pressure To Avoid Long Term Social Empoverishment," Europolity – Continuity and Change in European Governance - New Series, Department of International Relations and European Integration, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 10(2), pages 1-35.
    19. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural rate of unemployment; potential GDP; pure productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.