A dynamic model to estimate the long-run trends in potential GDP
AbstractTo estimate long-run growth based on the so-called potential GDP became a constant preoccupation among economists. However, one remaining problem in every long-run growth model is to estimate a persistent trend in labour productivity outside of it, in order to avoid the implicit circular relationship between actual productivity growth and potential level of production. Coming from recent literature on natural rate of unemployment estimation we used a specific methodology in order to estimate NAIRU in case of post-communist economies and based on it to evaluate the potential GDP. Taking into account that the “classic” Hodrick-Prescott method is in fact equivalent to an interpolation procedure, we used in our experiment other three filters demonstrating very similar output. Moreover, we conceived a simple autonomous model in order to estimate the growth of a so-called “pure” productivity independently from the actual level of employment and to compare its dynamics with that of natural rate of unemployment.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3708.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
natural rate of unemployment; potential GDP; pure productivity;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2007-06-30 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-06-30 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002.
"The NAIRU in Theory and Practice,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association,
American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
- Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics 475, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," NBER Working Papers 8940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001.
"Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve,"
NBER Working Papers
8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2001. "Evolution Of Inflation-Unemployment Relationship In The Perspective Of Romania’S Accession To Eu," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-23, December.
- Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in Transitional Economies: A theoretical and empirical investigation," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting 081103, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
- Daniel Daianu & Lucian-Liviu Albu, .
"Strain and the Inflation - Unemployment Relationship: A Conceptual and Empirical Investigation,"
Ace Project Memoranda, Department of Economics, University of Leicester
96/15, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Daianu, Daniel & Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 1996. "Strain and the inflation - unemployment relationship: a conceptual and empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 14017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 44-50, June.
- Lucian-Liviu Albu & Vasile Dinu, 2009. "How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(Number Sp), pages 675-683, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.