How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania
AbstractUsing adequate composite indicators, indeed together with other specific models, to analyse high frequency time series and to obtain sort-term forecasts can improve information for business environment, in modern era characterised by an accelerate process of changing. In our study we tried to build a composite indicator based on some monthly time series and to use it in order to obtain short-term forecasts for economic activity at national level. This indicator could be useful taking into account that actually there is no synthetic indicator to describe short-run dynamics of economic activity. To verify hypotheses of the estimating model for composite index, we used in case of Romanian economy the quarterly time series for the elements of it and quarterly published GDP as a benchmark indicator.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania in its journal The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal.
Volume (Year): 11 (2009)
Issue (Month): Number Special 3 (November)
composite index; economic recession; business cycle indicators; high frequency time series;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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