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How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania

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  • Lucian-Liviu Albu

    ()
    (Institute forEconomic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Vasile Dinu

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

Using adequate composite indicators, indeed together with other specific models, to analyse high frequency time series and to obtain sort-term forecasts can improve information for business environment, in modern era characterised by an accelerate process of changing. In our study we tried to build a composite indicator based on some monthly time series and to use it in order to obtain short-term forecasts for economic activity at national level. This indicator could be useful taking into account that actually there is no synthetic indicator to describe short-run dynamics of economic activity. To verify hypotheses of the estimating model for composite index, we used in case of Romanian economy the quarterly time series for the elements of it and quarterly published GDP as a benchmark indicator.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania in its journal The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal.

Volume (Year): 11 (2009)
Issue (Month): Number Special 3 (November)
Pages: 675-683

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Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:11:y:2009:i:number_special_3:p:675-683

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Keywords: composite index; economic recession; business cycle indicators; high frequency time series;

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References

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  6. Scutaru, Cornelia & Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2005. "Output Gap And Shocks Dynamics. The Case Of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 2(4), pages 25-43.
  7. Keith R. Phillips, 2004. "A new monthly index of the Texas business cycle," Working Papers 0401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  8. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 44-50, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Viorel Lefter & Constantin Brătianu & Adriana Agapie & Simona Agoston & Ivona Orzea, 2011. "Intergenerational knowledge transfer in the academic environment of knowledge-based economy," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 13(30), pages 392-403, June.
  2. Nicolae Dardac & Petronel Chiriac & Bogdan Moinescu, 2012. "The Use of Internal Rating Models in Managing the Risks Related to the Exposures of Non-banking Financial Institutions," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(31), pages 258-271, February.
  3. Andrei, Dalina Maria, 2011. "FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ROMANIA AND CEE COUNTRIES - Conferinta CRESTERE ECONOMICA SI SUSTENABILITATE SOCIALA. PROVOCARI SI PERSPECTIVE EUROPENE>," Institute for Economic Forecasting Conference Proceedings 101103, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  4. Savoiu, Gheorghe & Dinu, Vasile & Ciuca, Suzana, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment based on Country Risk and other Macroconomic Factors. Econometric Models for Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 39-61, March.
  5. Andrei, Dalina Maria, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investments in Romania. A Structural and Dynamic View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-146, December.

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