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The 1920s and the 1990s in Mutual Reflection

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  • Robert J. Gordon

Abstract

This paper develops a new analysis of the U. S. economy in the 1920s that is illuminated by contrasts with the 1990s, and it also re-examines the causes of the Great Depression. In both the 1920s and the 1990s the acceleration of productivity growth linked to the delayed effects of previously invented "general purpose technologies" stimulated an increase in fixed investment that became excessive and proved to be unsustainable, while the productivity acceleration helps to account for low inflation in both decades. The uncanny parallel of the stock market boom, bubble, and collapse in 1995-2001 as in 1924-1930, reminds us that business cycles emerge from the complex interplay of multiple factors, not just one. Common elements between the two decades are overshadowed by differences, including the much larger share of agricultural output in the 1920s, the weakness of farm prices throughout the decade, and the role of collapsing farm prices in the pervasive post-1929 downward shift in aggregate demand. Another partly related difference was a high volatility of inventory accumulation that reflected the larger share of agriculture and manufacturing in the economy of the 1920s. Failures of public policy in the 1920s included the absence of deposit insurance, the unit-banking regulations that prevented the diversification of financial risk across regions, and the low margin requirements that exacerbated swings in stock market prices. Further, the 1920s witnessed the advent of protectionism and the sharp curtailment of immigration. The stability of the American economy after the 2000-01 collapse of investment and the stock market proves that good public policy matters, going beyond the narrowly defined operations of monetary and fiscal policy. Such highly diverse policies as banking regulation, deposit insurance, margin rules, reduction of tariffs, and loose restrictions on immigration all combine to make today's American economy more stable and less fragile than in the 1920s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11778.

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Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Publication status: published as Rhode, Paul W. and Gianni Toniolo (eds.) The Global Economy in the 1990s: A Long-Run Perspective. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11778

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  1. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information technology explain why productivity accelerated in the United States but not the United Kingdom?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research 2021, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Robert J. Gordon, 1982. "Why Stopping Inflation May Be Costly: Evidence from Fourteen Historical Episodes," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 11-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-61, May.
  4. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing 261, OECD Publishing.
  5. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B Historical Data," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. R. A. Gordon, 1951. "Cyclical Experience in the Interwar Period: The Investment Boom of the Twenties," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Conference on Business Cycles, pages 163-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
  8. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  9. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1998. "The Origins Of Technology-Skill Complementarity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 693-732, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Jinghai Zheng & Angang Hu & Arne Bigsten, 2009. "Potential output in a rapidly developing economy: the case of China and a comparison with the United States and the European Union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 317-342.

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