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Does Aid translate into Bilateral Trade? Findings for Recipient Countries

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  • Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada
  • Cardozo, Adriana
  • Herzer, Dierk
  • Klasen, Stephan

Abstract

This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the link between foreign aid and exports in recipient countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasizes the negative impact of aid on recipient countries' exports primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding possible positive effects of aid in overcoming supply bottlenecks and promoting bilateral trade relations. Our empirical findings -all based on endogeneity-proof techniques (such as Dynamic OLS or more refined techniques) - depend very strongly on whether bilateral trade relations and autocorrelation of the disturbances are controlled for. When not controlling for these phenomena, the impact of aid is quite substantial (especially in Asia, Latin America & Caribbean) but when sound estimation techniques are applied the net impact of aid on recipient countries' exports becomes insignificant in the full 130-country sample and the subsamples: Sub-Saharan Africa & MENA, Asia and Latin America & the Caribbean. However, this rather disappointing finding is in line with the small macroeconomic impact of aid found in earlier studies. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics in its series Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 with number 61.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec11:61

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Keywords: International trade; foreign aid; recipient exports; bilateral trade relations;

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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Jonathan Munemo & Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Arabinda Basistha, 2007. "Foreign aid and export performance: a panel data analysis of developing countries," Working Papers 2007-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Economic Geography and International Inequality," CEP Discussion Papers dp0495, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Lars M. Johansson & Jan Pettersson, 2008. "Tied Aid, Trade-Facilitating Aid or Trade-Diverting Aid?," DEGIT Conference Papers c013_008, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  5. Jon Haveman & David Hummels, 2004. "Alternative hypotheses and the volume of trade: the gravity equation and the extent of specialization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 199-218, February.
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  8. Doucouliagos , H. & Paldam, M., 2007. "The aid effectiveness literature: The sad results of 40 years of research," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0773, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Christopher Adam & David Bevan, 2004. "Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance and Dutch Disease in Low Income Countries," Economics Series Working Papers 201, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  11. Sanjay G. Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2006. "Development Aid and Economic Growth: A Positive Long-Run Relation," Working Papers 29, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
  12. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487, 05.
  13. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Dierk Herzer & Stephan Klasen & Axel Dreher, 2009. "In Search for a Long-run Relationship between Aid and Growth: Pitfalls and Findings," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 196, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  14. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Conditional Aid Effectiveness. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  15. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Aid Effectiveness on Growth. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  16. Michael Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short-term Effect of Aid on Growth," Working Papers 44, Center for Global Development.
  17. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
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