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Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration

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  • Hassler, Uwe
  • Wolters, Jürgen

Abstract

This paper considers cointegration analysis within an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) framework. First, different reparameterizations and interpretations are reviewed. Then we show that the estimation of a cointegrating vector from an ADL specification is equivalent to that from an error-correction (EC) model. Therefore, asymptotic normality available in the ADL model under exogeneity carries over to the EC estimator. Next, we review cointegration tests based on EC regressions. Special attention is paid to the effect of linear time trends in case of regressions without detrending. Finally, the relevance of our asymptotic results in finite samples is investigated by means of computer experiments. In particular, it turns out that the conditional EC model is superior to the unconditional one. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2005/22.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:200522

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Keywords: Error-correction ; asymptotically normal inference ; cointegration testing;

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References

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  1. Urbain, J-P., 1991. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Papers 9103, Liege - Centre de Recherches Economiques et Demographiques.
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  4. Hassler, Uwe, 2000. " Cointegration Testing in Single Error-Correction Equations in the Presence of Linear Time Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(5), pages 621-32, December.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 893, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  9. Breusch, Trevor S & Wickens, Michael R, 1987. "Dynamic Specification, the Long Run and the Estimation of Transformed Regression Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 154, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
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  13. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
  14. Uwe Hassler, 1999. "(When) Should cointegrating regressions be detrended? The case of a German money demand function," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 155-172.
  15. Hylleberg, Svend & Mizon, Grayham E, 1989. "Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 113-25, Supplemen.
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Cited by:
  1. Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2005. "Hooverism, Hyperstabilisation or Halfway-House? Describing Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European EU Members," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 38-47, July.
  2. Luiz de Mello & Diego Moccero & Matteo Mogliani, 2009. "Do Latin American Central Bankers Behave Non-Linearly?: The Experiences of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 679, OECD Publishing.
  3. Raghbendra Jha & Varsha S. Kulkarni, 2013. "Inflation, its Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India," ASARC Working Papers 2013-06, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  4. Morten Hansen, 2005. "The Irosh Growth Miracle: Can Latvia Replicate?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 3-14, July.
  5. Claus-Friedrich Laaser & Klaus Schrader, 2005. "Baltic Trade with Europe: Back to the Roots?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 15-37, July.
  6. Virmantas Kvedaras, 2005. "Explanation of Economic Growth Differences in the CEE Countries: Importance of the BOP Constraint," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 48-65, July.
  7. Garfa, Kamel, 2011. "MENA aggregate cycle and world conjuncture: Episodes of volatility and symmetry, and an ADL cointegration test," MPRA Paper 32247, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2011.
  8. Koester, Gerrit B. & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2012. "Estimating dynamic tax revenue elasticities for Germany," Discussion Papers 23/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Cardozo, Adriana & Herzer, Dierk & Klasen, Stephan, 2011. "Does Aid translate into Bilateral Trade? Findings for Recipient Countries," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 61, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.

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