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Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration

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  • Uwe Hassler

    ()

  • Jürgen Wolters

    ()

Abstract

This paper considers cointegration analysis within an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) framework. First, different reparameterizations and interpretations are reviewed. Then we show that the estimation of a cointegrating vector from an ADL specification is equivalent to that from an error-correction (EC) model. Therefore, asymptotic normality available in the ADL model under exogeneity carries over to the EC estimator. Next, we review cointegration tests based on EC regressions. Special attention is paid to the effect of linear time trends in case of regressions without detrending. Finally, the relevance of our asymptotic results in finite samples is investigated by means of computer experiments. In particular, it turns out that the conditional EC model is superior to the unconditional one. --

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv.

Volume (Year): 90 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 59-74

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Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:90:y:2006:i:1:p:59-74

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Related research

Keywords: Error-correction; asymptotically normal inference; cointegration testing. JEL C22; C32;

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References

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  1. Neil Ericsson, 2004. "The ET interview: professor David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 811, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Hassler, Uwe, 2000. " Cointegration Testing in Single Error-Correction Equations in the Presence of Linear Time Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(5), pages 621-32, December.
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  8. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2006. "Structural vector autoregressive analysis for cointegrated variables," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 75-88, March.
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  11. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
  12. Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 133-158, September.
  13. Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
  14. Uwe Hassler, 1999. "(When) Should cointegrating regressions be detrended? The case of a German money demand function," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 155-172.
  15. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  16. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
  17. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Raghbendra Jha & Varsha S. Kulkarni, 2013. "Inflation, its Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India," ASARC Working Papers 2013-06, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  2. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Cardozo, Adriana & Herzer, Dierk & Klasen, Stephan, 2011. "Does Aid translate into Bilateral Trade? Findings for Recipient Countries," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 61, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  3. Koester, Gerrit B. & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2012. "Estimating dynamic tax revenue elasticities for Germany," Discussion Papers 23/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Morten Hansen, 2005. "The Irosh Growth Miracle: Can Latvia Replicate?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 3-14, July.
  5. Claus-Friedrich Laaser & Klaus Schrader, 2005. "Baltic Trade with Europe: Back to the Roots?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 15-37, July.
  6. Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2005. "Hooverism, Hyperstabilisation or Halfway-House? Describing Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European EU Members," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 38-47, July.
  7. Virmantas Kvedaras, 2005. "Explanation of Economic Growth Differences in the CEE Countries: Importance of the BOP Constraint," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 48-65, July.
  8. Garfa, Kamel, 2011. "MENA aggregate cycle and world conjuncture: Episodes of volatility and symmetry, and an ADL cointegration test," MPRA Paper 32247, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2011.

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