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Growth and the Real Exchange Rate - Evidence from Eleven Countries

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Author Info
Mark Crosby (University of Melbourne)
Glenn Otto (The University of New South Wales)

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Abstract

There are conflicting theories about the effect of real exchange rate movements on output growth. Expenditure switching models suggest that a real depreciation leads to an increase in net exports due to the increase in competitiveness of the export sector, and hence to an increase in output growth. Contractionary depreciation models, on the other hand, suggest that real depreciations can reduce output growth. In this paper we examine the evidence on the impact of real exchange rate movements on the real economy for a number of countries. We find that different countries have had quite different experiences with respect to the response of output growth to exchange rate changes, and we offer some suggestions as to why this has been the case.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 082001.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2001
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Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:082001

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  2. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian Liquidity Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 577. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-1), pages 1-90. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1986. "Exchange Rate Management and Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 17-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Exchange Controls, Devaluations and Real Exchange Rates: The Latin American Experience," NBER Working Papers 2348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Magda E. Kandil, . "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Theory and Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 00/184, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Ramon Moreno, 1999. "Depreciation and recessions in East Asia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-40. [Downloadable!]
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