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Exchange Controls, Devaluations and Real Exchange Rates: The Latin American Experience

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  • Sebastian Edwards

    (UCLA)

Abstract

This paper deals with the anatomy of devaluation in Latin America. In an effort to understand the economics surrounding the causes and consequences of exchange rate crises, eighteen devaluation episodes that took place between 1962 and 1982 are investigated in detail. The paper focuses on: (1) the relation between (inconsistent) macroeconomics policies and exchange rate crises; (2) the role of real exchange rate overvaluation in the precipitation of balance of payment crises under pre-determined nominal exchange rates; (3) the role of exchange controls, multiple exchange rates and black markets in the period preceding devaluations; and (4) the effectiveness of nominal devaluations as a way to restore real exchange rate equilibrium. A distinction is made between stepwise devaluations and crawling peg regime. It was found that historically most stepwise devaluations have had difficulty in sustaining a real devaluation over the medium term. Countries that adopted a crawling peg have generally been able to maintain a higher real exchange rate. In many cases, however, this has been achieved at the cost of substantial inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UCLA Department of Economics in its series UCLA Economics Working Papers with number 450.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 1987
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Handle: RePEc:cla:uclawp:450

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Web page: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1987. "Balance of Payments Crises in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 19-32, February.
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1974. "Tariffs and nontraded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-185, May.
  4. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1980. "LDC participation in international financial markets : Debt and reserves," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 3-21, February.
  5. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  6. Razin, Assaf & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1983. "Trade taxes and the current account," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 55-57.
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Cited by:
  1. Mark Crosby & Glenn Otto, 2001. "Growth and the Real Exchange Rate - Evidence from Eleven Countries," Working Papers 082001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere & Renee van Eyden & Francis Kemegue, 2011. "Remittances And The Dutch Disease In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Approach," Working Papers 201129, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  3. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Comment la dernière crise financière a relancé le débat relatif à l'arrimage du fcfa à l'euro
    [How the recent financial crisis have revived the debate on the parity between fcfa and euro]
    ," MPRA Paper 32077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2006. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:247-264 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Saravelo, George, 2011. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 5027952, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  7. Bouoiyour, jamal & Kuikeu, Oscar, 2007. "Pertinence de la dévaluation du Franc CFA de janvier 1994 : Une évaluation par le taux de change réel d’équilibre. Cas de l’économie camerounaise
    [Relevance of the CFA France devaluation i
    ," MPRA Paper 31357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Ali Kutan, 1998. "Dynamics of parallel and official exchange rates: The experience of hungary," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 54-65, March.
  9. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2005. "Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 219-237, February.
  10. Ndlela, Thandinkosi, 2011. "Evolution of Zimbabwe’s economic tragedy: a chronological review of macroeconomic policies and transition to the economic crisis," MPRA Paper 32703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas, 2007. "Dual foreign currency markets and the role of expectations: Evidence from the Pacific Basin countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 238-259, June.
  12. Ndlela, Thandinkosi, 2010. "Implications of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries: theory, empirical evidence and application to growth performance in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 32710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas P., 2001. "Black and official exchange rates in Greece: an analysis of their long-run dynamics," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 295-314, July.
  14. Shinji Takagi, 2010. "Applying the Lessons of Asia: The IMF’s Crisis Management Strategy in 2008," Working Papers id:3006, eSocialSciences.
  15. Ghura, Dhaneshwar, 1995. "Effects of macroeconomic policies on income growth, inflation, and output growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 367-395, August.
  16. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2003. "Market efficiency, purchasing power parity, and the official and parallel markets for foreign currency in Latin America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-110.
  17. MITEZA, Ilir, 2006. "Devaluation And Output In Five Transition Economies: A Panel Cointegration Approach Of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia And Romania, 1993-2000," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).

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