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Business Cycle In The Industrial Production Of Brazilian States

Author

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  • Marcelo Savino Portugal
  • Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais

Abstract

The present paper applies the Markov switching model with the aim of checking two industrial production features of six major Brazilian states. Firstly, we try to determine the date of business cycles and, soon afterwards, we verify the existence or not of an unobservable component that is common to all series from 1980 to 2001. The characteristics of this comovement are checked by multivariate models. The results from the univariate estimates allow us to infer about the existence of a similar behavior between the industrial production of the southeastern states and that observed in the southern states. The multivariate model efficiently captures the cyclic behavior of industrial production when used regionally, thus revealing a dynamics for growth and recession periods, which differs between these two regions

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Savino Portugal & Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais, 2004. "Business Cycle In The Industrial Production Of Brazilian States," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 23, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:23
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    Cited by:

    1. Morais, Igor Alexandre C. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "Leading Indicators for the Capital Goods Industry," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 31(1), March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Industrial Production; Markov Switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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