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Business Cycle In The Industrial Production Of Brazilian States

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Author Info
Marcelo Savino Portugal
Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais

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Abstract

The present paper applies the Markov switching model with the aim of checking two industrial production features of six major Brazilian states. Firstly, we try to determine the date of business cycles and, soon afterwards, we verify the existence or not of an unobservable component that is common to all series from 1980 to 2001. The characteristics of this comovement are checked by multivariate models. The results from the univariate estimates allow us to infer about the existence of a similar behavior between the industrial production of the southeastern states and that observed in the southern states. The multivariate model efficiently captures the cyclic behavior of industrial production when used regionally, thus revealing a dynamics for growth and recession periods, which differs between these two regions

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 23.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:23

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Related research
Keywords: Business Cycles; Industrial Production; Markov Switching;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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    Other versions:
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