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Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

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  • Basher, Syed Abul

Abstract

As oil and gas are exhaustible resources, the need for economic diversification has gained momentum in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries immediately after the end of the first oil boom in 1973-74. Economic diversification, in the context of GCC countries, implies development of the non-oil sector and reduction of the proportion of government revenue and export proceeds from the oil and gas sector. Applying newly developed measures of business cycle synchronicity between oil and non-oil sectors in three GCC economies (Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia), we show both the degree of diversification achieved so far and the direction of diversification in terms of individual non-oil sectors. Overall, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia appear to be moderately ahead than Qatar in reducing their dependence on oil. Nevertheless, by developing large production capacities of natural gas, Qatar has recently reduced its dependence on oil in favor of natural gas. A quantitative assessment of the determinants of business cycle synchronization is also provided.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21059.

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Date of creation: 02 Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21059

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Keywords: Business cycle; Synchronization; Oil price; Fiscal policy; GCC countries;

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Cited by:
  1. Basher, Syed Abul & Elsamadisy, Elsayed Mousa, 2010. "Country Heterogeneity and Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in the Gulf Arab States," MPRA Paper 27348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Basher, Syed Abul & Fachin, Stefano, 2011. "The long-run relationship between savings and investment in oil-exporting developing countries: A case study of the Gulf Arab States," MPRA Paper 29077, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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