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Capital, finance, and trade collapse

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  • Yang Jiao
  • Yi Wen
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Abstract

This paper proposes a model of international trade with capital accumulation and financial intermediation. This is achieved by embedding the Melitz (2003) model into an incomplete-markets neoclassical framework with an endogenous credit market. The model preserves the analytical tractability of the original Melitz model despite non-trivial distribution of firms’ net worth and capital stocks. We use the model to examine the differential effects of financial and non-financial shocks on aggregate output and international trade flows. The model predicts that trade volume declines far more sharply and significantly than that of output (with an elasticity larger than 3) under financial shocks than under non-financial shocks. The prediction is consistent with the stylized fact that most countries that experienced major financial crises had significantly larger and sharper contraction in exports than aggregate output (as is also true during the recent financial crisis). In the long run, however, a deeper financial market is a great source of "comparative advantage"— it raises not only the level of aggregate productivity but also the ratio of trade volume to domestic output.>

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2012-003.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-003

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Keywords: Financial crises ; Credit ; International trade;

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  1. Manova, Kalina, 2008. "Credit constraints, equity market liberalizations and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 33-47, September.
  2. Jonathan Eaton & Sam Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2010. "Trade and the global recession," Working Paper Research 196, National Bank of Belgium.
  3. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," NBER Working Papers 10540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Greenwood, Jeremy & Sanchez, Juan M & Wang, Cheng, 2007. "Financing Development: The Role of Information Costs," Staff General Research Papers 12848, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Andrew B Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2000. "Plants and productivity in international trade," Working Papers 00-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  6. Tibor Besedes & Thomas Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
  7. Richard H. Steckel, 2008. "Heights and Human Welfare: Recent Developments and New Directions," NBER Working Papers 14536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Virgiliu Midrigan & Daniel Yi Xu, 2010. "Finance and Misallocation: Evidence from Plant-level Data," NBER Working Papers 15647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kletzer, Kenneth & Bardhan, Pranab, 1986. "Credit Markets and Patterns of International Trade," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1g36f3sd, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 16059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Raddatz, Claudio, 2008. "Credit chains and sectoral comovemen t: does the use of trade credit amplify sectoral shocks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4525, The World Bank.
  13. Davin Chor & Kalina Manova, 2010. "Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Fnancial Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2004. "Credit Market Imperfections and Patterns of International Trade and Capital Flows," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-293, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  15. Iacovone, Leonardo & Zavacka, Veronika, 2009. "Banking crises and exports : lessons from the past," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5016, The World Bank.
  16. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?," Working Papers 10-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  17. Yi Wen & Pengfei Wang, 2010. "Financial Development and Economic Volatility:A Unified Explanation," 2010 Meeting Papers 66, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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