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Ins, outs, and the duration of trade

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Author Info
Tibor Besedes
Thomas Prusa

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Abstract

We employ survival analysis to study the duration of U.S. imports. Our findings indicate international trade is far more dynamic than previously thought. The median duration of exporting a product to the U.S. is very short, on the order of two to four years. There is negative duration dependence. If a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will likely export the product for a long period of time. The results hold across countries and industries and are robust to aggregation.

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File URL: http://economics.ca/cgi/xms?jab=v39n1/12.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 266-295
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:266-295

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Related research
Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis

Cited by:
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  1. Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Nurmi, Satu, 2007. "Dynamics of export market entry and exit," MPRA Paper 6060, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kalina Manova, 2008. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," NBER Working Papers 14531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. T.Huw Edwards, 2009. "Globalisation as a ‘good times’ phenomenon: a search-based explanation," Discussion Paper Series 2009_07, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2009. [Downloadable!]
  4. Volker Nitsch, 2007. "Die Another Day: Duration in German Import Trade," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_037, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Balazs Murakozy & Gabor Bekes, 2009. "Temporary Trade," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0909, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kalina Manova & Zhiwei Zhang, 2009. "China's Exporters and Importers: Firms, Products and Trade Partners," NBER Working Papers 15249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mélise Jaud & Madina Kukenova & Martin Strieborny, 2009. "Financial dependence and intensive margin of trade," PSE Working Papers 2009-35, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  8. Baldwin, Richard & Harrigan, James, 2007. "Zeros, Quality and Space: Trade Theory and Trade Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6368, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Rubén Segura-Cayuela & Josep M. Vilarrubia, 2008. "Uncertainty and entry into export markets," Banco de España Working Papers 0811, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  10. Brenton, Paul & Saborowski, Christian & von Uexkull, Erik, 2009. "What explains the low survival rate of developing country export flows ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4951, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. C. Veeramani, 2008. "Impact of imported intermediate and capital goods on economic growth: A Cross country analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-029, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India. [Downloadable!]
  12. Cong S. Pham, 2007. "Relationship-Specific Sunk Costs and Exporter Decisions," Economics Series 2007_06, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kalina Manova & Zhiwei Zhang, 2008. "China's exporters and importers: firms, products, and trade partners," Working Paper Series 2008-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  14. T.Huw Edwards, 2009. "The capital value of the search for trading matches," Discussion Paper Series 2009_08, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jul 2009. [Downloadable!]
  15. Holger Görg & Richard Kneller & Balázs Muraközy, 2008. "What Makes a Successful Export?," CeFiG Working Papers 2, Center for Firms in the Global Economy, revised 01 Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2009. "Survival and Death in International Trade - Discrete-Time Durations of EU Imports," Working Papers 2009:12, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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