Ins, outs, and the duration of trade
AbstractWe employ survival analysis to study the duration of U.S. imports. Our findings indicate international trade is far more dynamic than previously thought. The median duration of exporting a product to the U.S. is very short, on the order of two to four years. There is negative duration dependence. If a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will likely export the product for a long period of time. The results hold across countries and industries and are robust to aggregation.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.
Volume (Year): 39 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Canadian Economics Association Prof. Steven Ambler, Secretary-Treasurer c/o Olivier Lebert, CEA/CJE/CPP Office C.P. 35006, 1221 Fleury Est Montréal, Québec, Canada H2C 3K4
Web page: http://economics.ca/cje/
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
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