Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to compare inflation persistence between the New Member States (NMS) that joined the European Union in 2004 and 2007 and selected euro area members. If the levels of inflation persistence between the two groups are different, the NMS may encounter problems with fulfilling the Maastricht criterion on inflation and – after entering the euro area – with inflation divergence. We argue that the specific economic situation of the NMS in the last 15 years necessitates careful selection of inflation persistence measures. Two measures are estimated. The first one is based on a simple univariate statistical model of inflation with a time-varying mean. The second one assumes that inflation follows a fractionally integrated process and measures inflation persistence within an ARFIMA model. Statistical tests suggest that the model with a time-varying mean is preferable to the ARFIMA model for almost all countries. The estimation results show that inflation persistence is not an issue for all of the NMS. On the one hand, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Malta, Romania, and Slovakia exhibit persistence levels similar to those in the selected euro area countries. On the other hand, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovenia encounter a problem with high persistence stemming from both high intrinsic and high expectations-based inflation persistence.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1197_1197_str_480_500_-_smidkova.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 60 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 480-500

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:60:y:2010:i:6:p:480-500

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Email:
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: inflation persistence; new member states; time-varying mean; central bank credibility; ARFIMA model; Bayesian estimation; Kalman filter;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Benati, Luca, 2008. "Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes," Working Paper Series 0851, European Central Bank.
  3. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Michael Ehrmann & Jordi Galí & Andrew Levin & Frank Smets, 2005. "New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modelling," Working Papers 242, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  4. P.A. Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Permanent and Transitory Policy Shocks in an Empirical Macro Model with Asymmetric Information," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 146, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2007/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2007.
  6. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: A structural time series approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  7. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2004. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0391, European Central Bank.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  9. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
  10. Antulio N. Bomfim & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1997. "Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  12. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  13. Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, 09.
  14. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
  15. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
  16. Druant, Martine & Fabiani, Silvia & Kezdi, Gabor & Lamo, Ana & Martins, Fernando & Sabbatini, Roberto, 2009. "How are firms’ wages and prices linked: survey evidence in Europe," Working Paper Series 1084, European Central Bank.
  17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
  18. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  19. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Horváth, Roman, 2006. "Price Setting Behaviour: Micro Evidence on Slovakia," CEPR Discussion Papers 5445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Zsolt Darvas & Balázs Varga, 2007. "Inflation persistence in the euro-area, US, and new members of the EU: Evidence from time-varying coefficient models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 137, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  21. Emil Stavrev, 2007. "Growth and Inflation Dispersions in EMU," IMF Working Papers 07/167, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 333., Boston College Department of Economics.
  23. Ratfai, Attila, 2000. "Linking individual and aggregate price changes," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0035, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  24. Joseph Byrne & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Euro area inflation: aggregation bias and convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 146(2), pages 339-357, June.
  25. Sbordone, Argia M., 2007. "Inflation persistence: Alternative interpretations and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1311-1339, July.
  26. West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Comment on Argia M. Sbordone "Inflation persistence: Alternative interpretations and policy implications"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1340-1343, July.
  27. Bilke, L., 2005. "Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI," Working papers 122, Banque de France.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jaromir Baxa & Michal Franta & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Miroslav Plasil & Marek Rusnak & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Transmission of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 11, number rb11/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, August.
  2. Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2011. "How Are Inflation Targets Set?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 265-300, 06.
  3. Zorica Mladenović & Aleksandra Nojković, 2012. "Inflation Persistence in Central and Southeastern Europe: Evidence from Univariate and Structural Time Series Approaches," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 235-266, May.
  4. Jan Babecky & Alena Bicakova & Alexis Derviz & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jakub Mateju & Ke Pang & Renata Pasalicova & Zuzana Prelcova & Marie Rakova & Pierre, 2011. "Macro-Financial Linkages: Theory and Applications," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 9, number rb09/2 edited by Jan Babecky, August.
  5. Jose Peydro Alcalde & Sona Benecka & Alexis Derviz & Adam Gersl & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Dorota Kowalczyk & Ivana Kubicova & Steven Ongena & Jakub Ry, 2012. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 10, number rb10/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, August.
  6. Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky, August.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:60:y:2010:i:6:p:480-500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.