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Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI

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  • Bilke, L.
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    Abstract

    This paper uses disaggregated CPI time series to show that a break in the mean of French inflation occurred in the mid-eighties and that the 1983 monetary policy shift mostly accounted for it. CPI average yearly growth declined from nearly 11% before the break date (May 1985) to 2.1% after. No other break in the 1973-2004 sample period can be found. Controlling for this mean break, both aggregate and sectoral inflation persistence are stable and low, with the unit root lying far in the tail of the persistence estimates. However, persistence differs dramatically across sectors. Finally, the duration between two price changes (at the firm level) appears positively related with inflation persistence (at the aggregate level).

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    File URL: http://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/ner122.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 122.

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    Length: 43 pages
    Date of creation: 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:122

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    Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
    Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Multiple breaks test ; Inflation persistence ; Monetary policy; sectoral prices;

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    References

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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Hanif, Muhamad Nadim & Malik, Muhamad Jahanzeb & Iqbal, Javed, 2012. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," MPRA Paper 43152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2005. "Nominal rigidities and inflation persistence in Luxembourg: a comparison with EU 15 member countries with particular focus on services and regulated prices," BCL working papers 14, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    3. Filippo Altissimo & Benoît Mojon & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2007. "Fast micro und slow macro: can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Working Paper Series 729, European Central Bank.
    4. Gianni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear DSGE model," Working Paper Series 754, European Central Bank.
    5. Laurent Bilke & Livio Stracca, 2008. "A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 905, European Central Bank.
    6. Altissimo, Filippo & Mojon, Benoit & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2009. "Can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 231-241, March.
    7. Laura Mayoral, 2009. "Heterogeneous dynamics, aggregation and the persistence of economic shocks," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 786.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    8. Michelle Chan & Silvia Matos, 2011. "Changes In Brazilian Inflationpersistence," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?," Working Paper Series 597, European Central Bank.
    10. Sevim Kosem Alp, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Sectoral Heterogeneity in Inflation Persistence (Sektorel Enflasyon Ataleti Farkliligi Altinda Optimal Para Politikasi)," Working Papers 1004, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Kateøina Šmídková, 2010. "The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 480-500, December.
    12. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    13. Mohamed Boutahar & Jamel Jouini, 2007. "A Methodology For Detecting Breaks In The Mean And Covariance Structure Of Time Series," Working Papers halshs-00354249, HAL.
    14. Sevim Kosem-Alp, 2009. "The (Ir)relevance of Inflation Persistence for Inflation Targeting Policy Design," Departmental Working Papers 0903, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
    15. Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2005. "Regulated and services’ prices and inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 466, European Central Bank.

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