Sustainability of Public Debt: Evidence from Pre-World War II Japan
AbstractJapan defaulted on its public debts only once throughout its modern history, after World War II (WWII). How did Japan lose its ability to sustain its public debts? This paper explores the sustainability of public debts in Japan before and during WWII. First, this paper reviews the brief history of pre-WWII public finance in Japan with reference to some narrative evidence, data, and previous works. Second, this paper conducts three stages of econometric analyses. It tests Ricardian neutrality of public debt. It tests the dynamic efficiency of Japanese economy, and it conducts Bohn's tests for the relationship between public debt and primary fiscal balance. The tests indicate that Japanese public debts were sustainable until 1931, and unsustainable in and after 1932. Third, this paper interprets the results of quantitative analyses with narrative modes of analysis. During the 1930s, Japan lost its fiscal discipline because of the military's effective veto over budgetary processes and because of the absence of pressure for sound fiscal policy from international financial markets.Length: 35 pages
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 201.
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2-1 Rokkodai, Nada, Kobe 657-8501 JAPAN
Phone: +81-(0)78 803 7036
Fax: +81-(0)78 803 7059
Web page: http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/index-e.html
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Henning Bohn, 2005. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1446, CESifo Group Munich.
- Bordo, Michael D. & Rockoff, Hugh, 1996.
"The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(02), pages 389-428, June.
- Michael D. Bordo, 1995. "The Gold Standard as a `Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval'," NBER Working Papers 5340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hugh Rockoff & Michael D. Bordo, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval"," Departmental Working Papers 199528, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Subrata Ghatak & José R. Sánchez-Fung, 2006.
"Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in Developing Economies?,"
384, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
- Subrata Ghatak & José R. Sánchez-Fung, 2007. "Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in Developing Economies?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 518-530, 08.
- Peter Temin, 1991. "Lessons from the Great Depression," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262700441, December.
- Barro, Robert J, 1986. " U.S. Deficits since World War I," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 195-22.
- Barro, Robert J, 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
- Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Office of Promoting Research Collaboration, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.