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Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in Developing Economies?

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Author Info
Subrata Ghatak
José R. Sánchez-Fung
Abstract

This paper investigates fiscal policy sustainability in Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, and Venezuela using competing methodologies. Standard unit roots and cointegration analyses do not endorse the validity of the intertemporal budget constraint. In contrast, to varying degree across-countries, alternative testing employing a fiscal policy reaction function indicates sustainability defined as surplus adjustments in response to higher debt to income ratios. Corresponding debt-dynamics analyses show that corrective measures were put in place to revert non-sustainable trends in government debt. However, ancillary variables in the debt modeling produce statistically weak evidence of procyclical fiscal behavior in the Latin American countries.

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Paper provided by Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT) in its series VATT Discussion Papers with number 384.

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Date of creation: 21 Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fer:dpaper:384

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Keywords: Fiscal policy sustainability fiscal policy reaction functions developing countries

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  1. Joseph Y. Lim & Manuel F. Montes, 2002. "Structural Adjustment Program after Structural Adjustment Program, but Why Still No Development in the Philippines?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(3), pages 90-119. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ravn, Morten O. & Uhlig, Harald, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2090, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "An Alternative Interpretation of the 'Resource Curse': Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 9424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rodriguez, Francisco & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1999. " Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 277-303, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
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  12. Burgess, Robin & Stern, Nicholas, 1993. "Taxation and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 762-830, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Apr 1989. [Downloadable!]
  14. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Gita Gopinath, 2005. "Efficient Fiscal Policy and Amplification," NBER Working Papers 11490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Takis Venetoklis & Heikki Ervasti, 2006. "Unemployment and Subjective Well-being: Does Money Make a Difference," VATT Discussion Papers 391, Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT). [Downloadable!]
  2. Teemu Lyytikäinen, 2006. "Rent Control and Tenants' Welfare: The Effects of Deregulating Rental Markets in Finland," VATT Discussion Papers 385, Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT). [Downloadable!]
  3. Jukka Jalava & Ilja Kristian Kavonius, 2006. "Durable Goods and Household Saving Ratios in the Euro Area," VATT Discussion Papers 409, Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT). [Downloadable!]
  4. Elina Berghäll, 2008. "Revealing Agglomeration Economies with Stochastic Frontier Modelling in the Finnish ICT Industry," VATT Discussion Papers 435, Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT). [Downloadable!]
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