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Parasal Buyume ve Tuketici Enflasyonu Degisim Orani Arasindaki Nedensellik Iliskisi Uzerine Bir Deneme: Turkiye Ornegi

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  • Levent Korap

    ()
    (Akdeniz University)

Abstract

In this paper the causality relationships between the inflationary process, experienced by the Turkish economy, and some main money supply measures have been tried to be investigated, and the direction of these relationships has also been aimed to be determined through the vector autoregression impulse-response function estimates. Our findings in general indicate that the course of inflationary framework seems to be exogenous as to the course of the monetary aggregates, and that the course of the monetary aggregates seems to be endogenous as to the course of the inflation. Moreover, impulse-response function estimates have been found supportive to these results. All in all, it is concluded that the monetary policy tends to be adaptive to the inflationary framework under the investigation period considered.

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File URL: http://eidergisi.istanbul.edu.tr/sayi9/iueis9m4.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University in its journal Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal.

Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 56-74

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Handle: RePEc:ist:ancoec:v:9:y:2009:i:1:p:56-74

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Web page: http://eidergisi.istanbul.edu.tr
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Related research

Keywords: Inflation; Money Supply; Causality; Unit Root; Stationarity; Vector Autoregression; Generalized Impulse-Response Shocks; Turkish Economy;

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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  2. C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  3. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
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  7. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, 06.
  8. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  9. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
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  11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  12. Ayca Tekin-Koru & Erdal Ozmen, 2003. "Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 591-596.
  13. Us, Vuslat, 2004. "Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1003-1013, December.
  14. Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Herwartz, Helmut, 2001. "Long-Run Links Among Money, Prices, and Output: World-Wide Evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  15. Erdal Ozmen, 1998. "Is currency seigniorage exogenous for inflation tax in Turkey?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 545-552.
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