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Tariffs and the macroeconomy: evidence from the USA

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Author Info

  • Andrew K. Rose
  • Jonathan D. Ostry

Abstract

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of tariffs. The effects of unilateral tariff changes are reviewed in a variety of theoretical models. Three different sets of data are consistent with the hypothesis that tariff rates have no significant effect on a system consisting of the real exchange rate, the real trade balance, and real output (both foreign and domestic) .

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1989/365/default.htm
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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1989/365/ifdp365.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 365.

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Date of creation: 1989
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:365

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Related research

Keywords: Tariff ; Balance of trade ; Foreign exchange rates;

References

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  1. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  2. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1987. "External Balance Correction: Depreciation or Protection," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 249-270.
  3. Razin, Assaf & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1983. "Trade taxes and the current account," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 55-57.
  4. Krugman, Paul, 1982. "The macroeconomics of protection with a floating exchange rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-182, January.
  5. Gardner, Grant W & Kimbrough, Kent P, 1989. "The Behavior of U.S. Tariff Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 211-18, March.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  7. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  8. Andrew K. Rose, 1990. "Why has trade grown faster than income?," International Finance Discussion Papers 390, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Russell S. Boyer, 1977. "Commercial Policy under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 218-32, May.
  10. Eichengreen, Barry J., 1981. "A dynamic model of tariffs, output and employment under flexible exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 341-359, August.
  11. Mussa, Michael, 1974. "A Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 333-51, August.
  12. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer.
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