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The Limit Distribution of the CUSUM of Square Test Under Genreal MIxing Conditions

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Author Info

  • Ai Deng

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Boston University)

  • Pierre Perron

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Boston University)

Abstract

We consider the CUSUM of squares test in a linear regression model with general mixing assumptions on the regressors and the errors. We derive its limit distribution and show how it depends on the nature of the error process. We suggest a corrected version that has a limit distribution free of nuisance parameters. We also discuss how it provides an improvement over the standard approach to testing for a change in the variance in a univariate times series. Simulation evidence is presented to support this. We illustrate the usefulness of our method by analyzing changes in the variance of stock returns and a variety of macroeconomic time series, as well as by testing for change in the variance of the residuals in a typical four-variable VAR model. Our results show the widespread prevalence of changes in the variance of such series and the fact that the variability of shocks affecting the U.S. economy has decreased.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston University - Department of Economics in its series Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number WP2005-046.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2005-046

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Keywords: Change-point; Variance shift; Recursive residuals; Dynamic models; Conditional heteroskedasticity.;

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References

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  1. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:4:p:489-500 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sangyeol Lee & Jeongcheol Ha & Okyoung Na & Seongryong Na, 2003. "The Cusum Test for Parameter Change in Time Series Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics & Finnish Statistical Society & Norwegian Statistical Association & Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 30(4), pages 781-796.
  4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  5. Koichi Maekawa & Sangyeol & Lee, 2004. "The Cusum Test for Parameter Change in Regression with ARCH Errors," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 606, Econometric Society.
  6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  7. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1986. "On studentizing a test for structural change," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 341-344.
  8. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-69, November.
  9. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2007. "A Non-local Perspective on the Power Properties of the CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares Tests for Structural Change," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  10. repec:att:wimass:9208 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2004. "Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 833-839, August.
  12. Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994. "Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
  13. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-85, March.
  14. Andreu Sansó & Vicent Aragó & Josep Lluís Carrion, 2003. "Testing for Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Financial Time Series," DEA Working Papers 5, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
  15. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Estimating and testing structural changes in multivariate regressions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  16. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Convergence to Stochastic Integrals for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 489-500, December.
  17. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Testing for covariance stationarity in stock market data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 165-170, June.
  18. Pierre Perron, 2005. "Dealing with Structural Breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-017, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  19. Ploberger, Werner & Krämer;, Walter, 1990. "The Local Power of the CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 335-347, September.
  20. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:3:p:335-47 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Deng, Ai & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "A non-local perspective on the power properties of the CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests for structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 212-240, January.

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