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Profundización Financiera y su efecto en las Firmas en Colombia

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  • Carlos Quicazán

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    Abstract

    El objetivo de este documento es calcular el efecto de la deuda con establecimientos de crédito y del indicador de profundización financiera (Cartera comercial sobre PIB), en el crecimiento de las ramas en Colombia durante el periodo 1999-2011. Los resultados empíricos encontrados sugieren que la deuda con establecimientos de crédito y el nivel de profundización financiera tienen un efecto positivo y significativo en el crecimiento que excede a las tasas máximas que una rama puede alcanzar si se restringe su apalancamiento. Al analizar el resultado discriminando la deuda por plazo, se encontró un efecto mayor de la deuda de largo plazo. Por otro lado, se calculó el efecto de la deuda con el sistema financiero en la inversión y estructura de financiamiento de las ramas. Se encontró que el efecto de la deuda con establecimientos de crédito en las actividades de inversión de una rama depende en parte si esta puede o no emitir títulos de deuda. Adicionalmente, se observó que un aumento en 1 % en el nivel de profundización financiera conlleva a un aumento de aproximadamente 0,22 % en la razón deuda con establecimientos de crédito y patrimonio de las ramas en Colombia. Por último, al analizar los efectos encontrados del apalancamiento financiero por periodo de tiempo, se observó un efecto positivo y significativo en los periodos identificados como de auge de crédito en Colombia.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Temas de Estabilidad Financiera with number 070.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:070

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    Related research

    Keywords: Profundización nanciera; auge de crédito; crecimiento de las rmas; estructura de financiación; restricciones de financiación Classification JEL: G20; O12; O16;

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    1. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    2. Alexander Guarín & Andrés González & Daphné Skandalis & Daniela Sánchez, 2012. "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms using Macroeconomic Aggregates," Borradores de Economia 723, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Francisco Gallego & Norman Loayza, 2000. "Financial Structure in Chile: Macroeconomic Developments and Microeconomic Effects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 75, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
    5. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
    6. Hyeok Jeong & Robert M. Townsend, 2005. "Sources of TFP Growth: Occupational Choice and Financial Deepening," IEPR Working Papers 05.28, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR), revised May 2005.
    7. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
    8. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934 Elsevier.
    9. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
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