IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/05-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Y a-t-il eu surinvestissement au Canada durant la seconde moitié des années 1990?

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvain Martel

Abstract

This study on overinvestment differs from the existing literature in that investment in machinery and equipment is modelled as a structural vector autoregression with identification achieved by imposing long-run restrictions, as in Blanchard and Quah (1989). The transitory components obtained from the model suggest the existence of a minor overinvestment in machinery and equipment of less than 5 per cent in 2000, despite a significant overevaluation of the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Martel, 2005. "Y a-t-il eu surinvestissement au Canada durant la seconde moitié des années 1990?," Staff Working Papers 05-5, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp05-5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Tevlin, Stacey & Whelan, Karl, 2003. "Explaining the Investment Boom of the 1990s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    4. Flint Brayton & Peter A. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    6. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
    7. Richard W. Kopcke, 1993. "The determinants of business investment: has capital spending been surprisingly low?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-31.
    8. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    9. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862, Elsevier.
    10. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
    11. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-826, August.
    12. Lynn E. Browne & Rebecca Hellerstein, 1997. "Are we investing too little?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-50.
    13. Joseph Atta-Mensah & Greg Tkacz, 1998. "Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach," Staff Working Papers 98-5, Bank of Canada.
    14. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models," Kiel Working Papers 1072, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Richard S. Brauman & Richard W. Kopcke, 2001. "The performance of traditional macroeconomic models of businesses' investment spending," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-39.
    16. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1999. "Investment: Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 223-274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 13174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    3. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2009. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 813-835, September.
    4. Del Boca, Alessandra & Galeotti, Marzio & Rota, Paola, 2008. "Non-convexities in the adjustment of different capital inputs: A firm-level investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 315-337, February.
    5. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9823, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Russell E. Triplett & Nilufer Ozdemir & Paul M. Mason, 2022. "Structural Change in the Investment Function," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 220-236, January.
    7. Whelan, Karl, 2003. "A Two-Sector Approach to Modeling U.S. NIPA Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 627-656, August.
    8. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2014. "Institutional and structural determinants of investment worldwide," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 160-177.
    9. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
    10. Jonathan Temple & Cliff Attfield, 2004. "Measuring trend growth: how useful are the great ratios?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Hasan Bakhshi & Nicholas Oulton & Jamie Thompson, 2003. "Modelling investment when relative prices are trending: theory and evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 189, Bank of England.
    12. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2007. "Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models This is a significantly revised version of our previous paper, 'Forecasting US Business Fixed ," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 33-51.
    13. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Torsten & Vance, Colin & Zimmermann, Tobias & Belke, Ansgar, 2008. "Einfluss von Preisschocks auf die Preisentwicklung in Deutschland: Forschungsvorhaben des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Projekt-Nr. I D 4-020815-16/07. Endbericht - Oktober 2008," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70890.
    14. Balázs Égert, 2018. "Regulation, Institutions and Aggregate Investment: New Evidence from OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 415-449, April.
    15. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    17. Karl Whelan, 2002. "Some New Economy Lessons for Macroeconomists," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 68(1), pages 21-36.
    18. Liuan Wang & Lu (Lucy) Yan & Tongxin Zhou & Xitong Guo & Gregory R. Heim, 2020. "Understanding Physicians’ Online-Offline Behavior Dynamics: An Empirical Study," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 537-555, June.
    19. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    20. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Domestic demand and components;

    JEL classification:

    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.