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Y a-t-il eu surinvestissement au Canada durant la seconde moitié des années 1990?

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  • Sylvain Martel
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    Abstract

    This study on overinvestment differs from the existing literature in that investment in machinery and equipment is modelled as a structural vector autoregression with identification achieved by imposing long-run restrictions, as in Blanchard and Quah (1989). The transitory components obtained from the model suggest the existence of a minor overinvestment in machinery and equipment of less than 5 per cent in 2000, despite a significant overevaluation of the stock market.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp05-5.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 05-5.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-5

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    Keywords: Domestic demand and components;

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    1. Tevlin, Stacey & Whelan, Karl, 2003. " Explaining the Investment Boom of the 1990s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 1-22, February.
    2. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862 Elsevier.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    4. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-26, August.
    5. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1998. "Investment, Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Working Papers 6652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lynn Elaine Browne & Rebecca Hellerstein, 1997. "Are we investing too little?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-50.
    7. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
    9. Richard W. Kopcke & Richard S. Brauman, 2001. "The performance of traditional macroeconomic models of businesses' investment spending," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-39.
    10. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    12. Philip Arestis & Panicos O. Demetriades & Kul B. Luintel, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: the Role of Stock Markets," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001) 97/05, Department of Economics, Keele University.
    13. F. Brayton & P. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Richard W. Kopcke, 1993. "The determinants of business investment: has capital spending been surprisingly low?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-31.
    15. Atta-Mensah, Joseph & Tkacz, Greg, 1998. "Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach," Working Papers 98-5, Bank of Canada.
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