The U.S. Employment-Population Reversal in the 2000s: Facts and Explanations
AbstractThe decline in the employment-population ratios for men and women over the period 2000-2007 prior to the Great Recession represents an historic turnaround in the evolution of U.S. employment. The decline is disproportionately concentrated among the less educated and younger groups within the male and female populations and, for women, disproportionately concentrated among the unmarried and those without children. About half of men’s decline can be explained by declines in wage rates and by changes in nonlabor income and family structure influences, but the decline among women is more difficult to explain and requires distinguishing between married and unmarried women and those with and without children, who have each experienced quite different wage and employment trends. Neither taxes nor transfers appear likely to explain the employment declines, with the possible exception of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Other influences such as the minimum wage or health factors do not appear to play a role, but increases in incarceration could have contributed to the decline among men.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 604.
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Robert A. Moffitt, 2012. "The U.S. Employment-Population Reversal in the 2000s: Facts and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 18520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
- J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2012-11-11 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-LAB-2012-11-11 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LTV-2012-11-11 (Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty)
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