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Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach

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  • Marco Lombardi
  • Chiara Osbat
  • Bernd Schnatz

Abstract

In this article, we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends in metals and food prices. These factors are included in a FAVAR model together with selected macroeconomic variables, which have been associated with developments in commodity prices. Impulse response functions confirm that exchange rates and economic activity affect individual non-energy commodity prices, but we fail to find strong spillovers from oil to non-oil commodity prices or an impact of the interest rate. In addition, we find that individual commodity prices are affected by common trends captured by the food and metals factors. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

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  • Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:43:y:2012:i:2:p:651-670
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0494-8
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Commodity prices; Exchange rates; Globalisation; FAVAR; E3; F3;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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