Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity
AbstractThis paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC) in its series UFAE and IAE Working Papers with number 855.10.
Date of creation: 24 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
model uncertainty; robust policy; Bayesian model averaging; minimax; oil prices.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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- Francesca Rondina, 2010. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices," Working Papers 478, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Rondina, Francesca, 2012.
"The role of model uncertainty and learning in the US postwar policy response to oil prices,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1009-1041.
- Francesca Rondina, 2010. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 834.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
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