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Uncertainty and monetary policy

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  • Sheila C. Dow

    (Department of Economics, University of Stirling, Scotland)

Abstract

The experience of monetary policy making in an uncertain environment has encouraged increased attention to the concept of model uncertainty, that is, uncertainty as to which is the best model. A particular difficulty has been the need to operationalise the concept in order to yield definitive policy recommendations; pluralism of method and the importance of judgement offer a potential solution. The literature building on Keynes’s theory of probability, in the meantime, has been refining the concept of uncertainty as something other than complete ignorance, although still falling short of quantifiability. This line of reasoning too supports pluralism of method and the importance of judgement. The purpose of this paper is to consider these different approaches taken to uncertainty for possibilities of synergy. Crucial issues are whether or not the goal is still to identify one best model, and how far model uncertainty is to be applied to individual decision-making.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by SCEME in its series SCEME Working Papers: Advances in Economic Methodology with number 002/2003.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sti:wpaper:002/2003

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Keywords: model-uncertainty; pluralism; Keynes;

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Cited by:
  1. Tomáš Otáhal, 2012. "Economic History: What Are the Contributions of Historical Example to Understanding of Economic Phenomena?," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(5), pages 679-693.
  2. Giuseppe Fontana & Bill Gerrard, 2006. "The future of Post Keynesian economics," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 59(236), pages 49-80.

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