IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/oxecpp/v60y2008i3p385-409.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decision-making at the Bank of England: a critical appraisal

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Downward
  • Andrew Mearman

Abstract

This paper investigates the process of decision-making within the Bank of England and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC): specifically, the extent of triangulation in the process. Triangulation is the mixing of two or more methods, investigators, theories, or data in a single investigation. Extensive evidence of limited triangulation is found within the MPC process. It is suggested that to enhance the logical consistency of their recommendations, the Bank engages in greater method triangulation. Further, in keeping with the moves towards transparency in the MPC process, it is proposed that procedures for employing the existing triangulation be codified. Copyright 2008 , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Downward & Andrew Mearman, 2008. "Decision-making at the Bank of England: a critical appraisal," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 385-409, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:60:y:2008:i:3:p:385-409
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpn009
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Cobham, 2003. "Why does the Monetary Policy Committee smooth interest rates?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 467-493, July.
    2. Clare Lombardelli & James Proudman & James Talbot, 2005. "Committees Versus Individuals: An Experimental Analysis of Monetary Policy Decision-Making," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    3. Orazio Attanasio & Laura Blow & Robert Hamilton & Andrew Leicester, 2005. "Consumption, house prices and expectations," Bank of England working papers 271, Bank of England.
    4. Blinder, Alan S., 2007. "Monetary policy by committee: Why and how?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 106-123, March.
    5. Jarkko Jääskelä & Tony Yates, 2005. "Monetary policy and data uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 281, Bank of England.
    6. Sheila C. Dow, 2004. "Uncertainty and monetary policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 539-561, July.
    7. Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November.
    8. Blinder, Alan S., 2007. "Monetary policy by committee: Why and how?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 106-123, March.
    9. Paul Downward & Andrew Mearman, 2007. "Retroduction as mixed-methods triangulation in economic research: reorienting economics into social science," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(1), pages 77-99, January.
    10. Budd, Alan, 1998. "The Role and Operations of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1783-1794, November.
    11. Harrison, Richard & Kapetanios, George & Yates, Tony, 2005. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 595-607.
    12. Norman Blaikie, 1991. "A critique of the use of triangulation in social research," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 115-136, May.
    13. Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecasting Using Bayesian and Information-Theoretic Model Averaging: An Application to U.K. Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 33-41, January.
    14. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Robust control of forward-looking models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 581-604, April.
    15. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 478-497, September.
    16. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    17. George Kapetanios, 2004. "Estimating Time-Variation in Measurement Error from Data Revisions: An Application to Forecasting in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 520, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
    19. Anne Sibert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Committees: Individual and Collective Reputations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(3), pages 649-665.
    20. Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1981. "Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 825-844, December.
    21. Sheila C. Dow & John Hillard (ed.), 1995. "Keynes, Knowledge And Uncertainty," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 148.
    22. Ravi Balakrishnan & J David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Understanding UK inflation: the role of openness," Bank of England working papers 164, Bank of England.
    23. Andrew Mearman, 2004. "'Open-Systems' and Economic Methodology," Working Papers 0402, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    24. Boumans, Marcel, 2005. "When evidence is not in the mean," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58437, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    25. Harrison, Richard & Kapetanios, George & Yates, Tony, 2005. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 595-607.
    26. Paul Downward & Andrew Mearman, 2002. "Critical Realism and Econometrics: Constructive Dialogue with Post Keynesian Economics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 391-415, November.
    27. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The Bank of England Macroeconomic Model: Its Nature and Implications," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 529-545, July.
    28. Vincenzo Cassino & Michael Joyce, 2003. "Forecasting inflation using labour market indicators," Bank of England working papers 195, Bank of England.
    29. George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Estimating time-variation in measurement error from data revisions; an application to forecasting in dynamic models," Bank of England working papers 238, Bank of England.
    30. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey M Hodgson, 2012. "On the Limits of Rational Choice Theory," Economic Thought, World Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-5, July.
    2. Andrew Mearman, 2008. "Pluralism and Heterodoxy: Introduction to the Special Issue," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 5-25, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Downward & Andrew Mearman, 2005. "Methodological Triangulation at the Bank of England:An Investigation," Working Papers 0505, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    2. Alastair Cunningham & Jana Eklund & Chris Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2009. "A State Space Approach to Extracting the Signal From Uncertain Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 173-180, March.
    3. Alastair Cunningham & Jana Eklund & Chris Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2009. "A State Space Approach to Extracting the Signal From Uncertain Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 173-180, March.
    4. Sheila Dow & Matthias Klaes & Alberto Montagnoli, 2009. "Risk And Uncertainty In Central Bank Signals: An Analysis Of Monetary Policy Committee Minutes," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 584-618, November.
    5. Alan S. Blinder, 2006. "Monetary Policy Today: Sixteen Questions and about Twelve Answers," Working Papers 73, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    6. repec:pri:cepsud:129blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Alan S. Blinder, 2006. "Monetary Policy Today: Sixteen Questions and about Twelve Answers," Working Papers 73, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    8. Benes, Jaromir & Kumhof, Michael, 2015. "Risky bank lending and countercyclical capital buffers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    9. Alan S. Blinder, 2009. "Making Monetary Policy by Committee," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 171-194, August.
    10. Alastair Cunningham & Chris Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2007. "A State Space Approach To The Policymaker's Data Uncertainty Problem," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 168, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    12. Francisco Ruge‐Murcia, 2022. "How do central banks make decisions?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 1643-1670, November.
    13. Alessandro Riboni & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2008. "The Dynamic (In)Efficiency of Monetary Policy by Committee," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1001-1032, August.
    14. Stephen Hansen & Carlos Velasco Rivera & Michael McMahon, 2013. "How Experts Decide: Preferences or Private Assessments on a Monetary Policy Committee?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. repec:zbw:bofism:2005_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2004. "Inflation Targeting, committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The case of the Bank of England's MPC," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 63, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    17. Annina Kaltenbrunner, 2018. "Financialised internationalisation and structural hierarchies: a mixed-method study of exchange rate determination in emerging economies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1315-1341.
    18. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin‐Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    19. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2013. "Dispersed communication by central bank committees and the predictability of monetary policy decisions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 223-244, October.
    20. Peacock, Chris & Baumann, Ursel, 2008. "Globalisation, import prices and inflation dynamics," Bank of England working papers 359, Bank of England.
    21. Wojciech Charemza & Daniel Ladley, 2012. "MPC Voting, Forecasting and Inflation," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/23, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Jan 2013.
    22. repec:zbw:bofism:2008_040 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 40/2008.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:60:y:2008:i:3:p:385-409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/oep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.