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A State Space Approach to Extracting the Signal from Uncertain Data

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Author Info
Alastair Cunningham (Bank of England)
Jana Eklund (Bank of England)
Chris Jeffery (Bank of England)
George Kapetanios () (Queen Mary, University of London and Bank of England)
Vincent Labhard (European Central Bank)

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Abstract

Most macroeconomic data are uncertain - they are estimates rather than perfect measures of underlying economic variables. One symptom of that uncertainty is the propensity of statistical agencies to revise their estimates in the light of new information or methodological advances. This paper sets out an approach for extracting the signal from uncertain data. It describes a two-step estimation procedure in which the history of past revisions are first used to estimate the parameters of a measurement equation describing the official published estimates. These parameters are then imposed in a maximum likelihood estimation of a state space model for the macroeconomic variable.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 637.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp637

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Related research
Keywords: Real-time data analysis; State space models; Data uncertainty; Data revisions;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2005. "UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0502, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Forecasting with Measurement Errors in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 521, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "A real-time analysis of the Swiss trade account," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 167, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-7.


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