Estimating time-variation in measurement error from data revisions; an application to forecasting in dynamic models

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Estimating time-variation in measurement error from data revisions; an application to forecasting in dynamic models

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George Kapetanios
Tony Yates

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Anthony Yates

Abstract

Over time, economic statistics are refined. This means that newer data are typically less well measured than old data. Time or vintage-variation in measurement error like this influences how forecasts should be made. Measurement error is obviously not directly observable. This paper shows that modelling the behaviour of the statistics agency generates an estimate of this time-variation. This provides an alternative to assuming that the final releases of variables are true. The paper applies the method to UK aggregate expenditure data, and demonstrates the gains in forecasting from exploiting these model-based estimates of measurement error.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 238.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:238

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Paper
- George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Estimating Time-Variation in Measurement Error from Data Revisions: An Application to Forecasting in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 520, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2005-01-02 (All new papers)
NEP-ECM-2005-01-02 (Econometrics)
NEP-ETS-2005-01-02 (Econometric Time Series)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Forecasting with Measurement Errors in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 521, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, . "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," Bank of England working papers 237, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
- Yates, Tony & Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios, 2003. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 225, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
- Harrison, Richard & Kapetanios, George & Yates, Tony, 2005. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 595-607. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Eric T. Swanson, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Eric Swanson, 2000. "On Signal Extraction and Non-Certainty-Equivalence in Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1085, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
- Eric T. Swanson, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
Other versions:
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
Andrew T. Levin & Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2001. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 084, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gunter Coenen & Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland, 2001. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Coenen, Günter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3812, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Guenter Coenen & Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/07, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Jarkko Jääskelä & Tony Yates, . "Monetary policy and data uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 281, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]

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