The use of preliminary data in econometric forecasting: an application with the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008.
"Macroeconomic Forecasting: Debunking a Few Old Wives' Tales,"
Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(3), pages 287-316.
- Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasting: Debunking a few old wives' tales," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 395, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
- Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005.
"Insurance within the Firm,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1054-1087, October.
- Guiso, Luigi & Pistaferri, Luigi & Schivardi, Fabiano, 2001. "Insurance Within the Firm," CEPR Discussion Papers 2793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri & Fabiano Schivardi, 2002. "Insurance within the firm," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 C3-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri & Fabiano Schivardi, 2001. "Insurance within the Firm," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 414, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Harvey, Andrew, 2003.
"Computing observation weights for signal extraction and filtering,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1317-1333, May.
- A. C. Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Computing Observation Weights for Signal Extraction and Filtering," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0888, Econometric Society.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005.
"News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data," Working Papers 141, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Howrey, E Philip, 1984. "Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 386-393, August.
- Patterson, K. D., 2000. "Which vintage of data to use when there are multiple vintages of data?: Cointegration, weak exogeneity and common factors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 115-121, November.
- Trivellato, Ugo & Rettore, Enrico, 1986. "Preliminary Data Errors and Their Impact on the Forecast Error of Simultaneous-Equations Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(4), pages 445-453, October.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Harrison, Richard & Kapetanios, George & Yates, Tony, 2005.
"Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 595-607.
- Yates, Tony & Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios, 2003. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 225, Royal Economic Society.
- Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," Bank of England working papers 237, Bank of England.
- Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Forecasting with Measurement Errors in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 521, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Parigi, Giuseppe & Golinelli, Roberto, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Harrison, Richard & Kapetanios, George & Yates, Tony, 2005.
"Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 595-607.
- Yates, Tony & Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios, 2003. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 225, Royal Economic Society.
- Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Forecasting with Measurement Errors in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 521, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," Bank of England working papers 237, Bank of England.
- Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Forecasting with Measurement Errors in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 521, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005.
"A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2002. "Macroeconomics of international price discrimination," International Finance Discussion Papers 744, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2003. "Macroeconomics of International Price Discrimination," CEPR Discussion Papers 3710, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giancarlo CORSETTI & Luca DEDOLA, 2003. "Macroeconomics of International Price Discrimination," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/20, European University Institute.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2002. "Macroeconomics of international price discrimination," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 461, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2002. "Macroeconomics of international price discrimination," Working Paper Series 176, European Central Bank.
- Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Filippo Altissimo & Alberto Locarno & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "Dealing with forward-looking expectations and policy rules in quantifying the channels of transmission of monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 460, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2010. "Estimating time variation in measurement error from data revisions: an application to backcasting and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 869-893.
- Lupi, Claudio & Peracchi, Franco, 2003. "The limits of statistical information: How important are GDP revisions in Italy?," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03005, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
- George Kapetanios, 2004.
"Estimating Time-Variation in Measurement Error from Data Revisions: An Application to Forecasting in Dynamic Models,"
Working Papers
520, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Estimating time-variation in measurement error from data revisions; an application to forecasting in dynamic models," Bank of England working papers 238, Bank of England.
- George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004.
"Estimating time-variation in measurement error from data revisions; an application to forecasting in dynamic models,"
Bank of England working papers
238, Bank of England.
- George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Estimating Time-Variation in Measurement Error from Data Revisions: An Application to Forecasting in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 520, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- George Kapetanios, 2004. "Estimating Time-Variation in Measurement Error from Data Revisions: An Application to Forecasting in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 520, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Cecilia Frale & Valentina Raponi, 2011. "Revisions in ocial data and forecasting," Working Papers LuissLab 1194, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Fabio Busetti, 2006.
"Preliminary data and econometric forecasting: an application with the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 1-23.
- Busetti, Fabio, 2004. "Preliminary Data and Econometric Forecasting: An Application with the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 4382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
- Dean Croushore, 2011.
"Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
- Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Richard G. Anderson & Charles S. Gascon, 2009. "Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 349-370.
- Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "A real-time analysis of the Swiss trade account," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 167, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Olivier Roodenburg, 2004. "On the predictability of GDP data revisions in the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 004, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvao, Ana, 2010.
"Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions,"
Economic Research Papers
270771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2010. "Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 953, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Clements Michael P., 2012. "Forecasting U.S. Output Growth with Non-Linear Models in the Presence of Data Uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, January.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005.
"News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
- Dean Croushore, 2019.
"Revisions to PCE Inflation Measures: Implications for Monetary Policy,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 241-265, October.
- Dean Croushore, 2008. "Revisions to PCE inflation measures: implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 08-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Thomas A. Knetsch & Hans‐Eggert Reimers, 2009. "Dealing with Benchmark Revisions in Real‐Time Data: The Case of German Production and Orders Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 209-235, April.
- S. Borağan Aruoba, 2008.
"Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 319-340, March.
- S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, March.
- Aruoba, Boragan, 2005. "Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved," CEPR Discussion Papers 5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Patterson, K. D., 1995. "Forecasting the final vintage of real personal disposable income: A state space approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 395-405, September.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Patterson, K. D., 2003. "Exploiting information in vintages of time-series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 177-197.
- Hecq, Alain & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019.
"Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-407.
- Alain Hecq & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2016. "Testing for News and Noise in Non-Stationary Time Series Subject to Multiple Historical Revisions," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-01, CIRANO.
- Hecq, A.W. & Jacobs, J.P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, M., 2016. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
- Peter A. Zadrozny, 2016. "Real-Time State Space Method for Computing Smoothed Estimates of Future Revisions of U.S. Monthly Chained CPI," CESifo Working Paper Series 5897, CESifo.
- Clements, Michael P., 2019.
"Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
- Michael Clements, 2017. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
More about this item
Keywords
preliminary data; macroeconomic forecasting; Bank of Italy Quarterly Econometric Model;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_437_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.