A real-time analysis of the Swiss trade account
AbstractFirst estimates of trade account statistics attract quite some attention in the media as they contain substantial information on recent economic developments. It is well known, however, that subsequent revisions of in particular this series can sometimes have substantial consequences for ex post evaluations of the economy. As a small open economy, Swiss overall growth as measured by its GDP is particularly prone for these revisions. This paper sets up a real-time dataset which is then used to analyze to what extent the first release of current account data (as compared to its revision) contains a structural bias and/or can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by KOF at the ETH Zurich. If this is the case, this would allow for improvements in its future first release and thereby enhance the current assessment of the Swiss economy
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 with number 167.
Date of creation: 02 Feb 2007
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current account statistics; real-time analysis; data revision;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
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