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A real-time analysis of the Swiss trade account

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Author Info
Jan Jacobs () (Faculty of Economics University of Groningen)
Jan-Egbert Sturm (KOF, ETH Zurich, Switzerland and CESifo, Munich, Germany)

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Abstract

First estimates of trade account statistics attract quite some attention in the media as they contain substantial information on recent economic developments. It is well known, however, that subsequent revisions of in particular this series can sometimes have substantial consequences for ex post evaluations of the economy. As a small open economy, Swiss overall growth as measured by its GDP is particularly prone for these revisions. This paper sets up a real-time dataset which is then used to analyze to what extent the first release of current account data (as compared to its revision) contains a structural bias and/or can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by KOF at the ETH Zurich. If this is the case, this would allow for improvements in its future first release and thereby enhance the current assessment of the Swiss economy

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 with number 167.

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Date of creation: 02 Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:167

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Related research
Keywords: current account statistics; real-time analysis; data revision;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2005. "VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision," Working Papers 05-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  2. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-19, June.
    Other versions:
  3. Howrey, E Philip, 1984. "Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 386-93, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Aruoba, Boragan, 2005. "Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved," CEPR Discussion Papers 5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2005. "UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0502, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bouwman, Kees E. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2005. "Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: the ragged-edge problem and revisions," CCSO Working Papers 200505, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alastair Cunningham & Jana Eklund & Christopher Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, . "A state space approach to extracting the signal from uncertain data," Bank of England working papers 336, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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