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National Accounts Revisions and Output Gap Estimates in a Model of Monetary Policy with Data Uncertainty

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Lavan Mahadeva
Alex Muscatelli

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Abstract

This paper looks at some implications of data uncertainty for monetary policy. We combine national accounts data revisions with optimal control and filtering experiments on a calibrated model to discuss policy implications of price-versus-volume data uncertainty in GDP data for the United Kingdom. We find some degree of negative correlation between revisions to real GDP and GDP deflator data. We develop a methodology for estimating the output gap which takes account of the benefit of hindsight and decreasing measurement errors through time. Our optimal control experiments reveal that monetary policy makers would be led to place greater weight on nominal GDP data and correspondingly less weight on separate, uncertain estimates of prices and volume growth. However, estimates of real growth and also the output gap matter even when there is much uncertainty of this type. Our results also suggest that estimates of the level of inflationary pressure and nominal GDP data become more important when the economy is prone to inflationary overreactions to shifts in technological progress

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Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 14.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:14

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  1. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gerali, Andrea & Lippi, Francesco, 2003. "Optimal Control and Filtering in Linear Forward-looking Economies: A Toolkit," CEPR Discussion Papers 3706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. repec:cup:macdyn:v:8:y:2004:i:1:p:27-50 is not listed on IDEAS
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  20. Svensson, Lars, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," Seminar Papers 673, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Ryan Banerjee & Nicoletta Batini, 2003. "UK Consumers’ Habits," Discussion Papers 13, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  22. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Indicator variables for optimal policy under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 661-690, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2000. "Sticky prices and volatile output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 621-632, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Alex Cukierman & Stefan Gerlach, 2003. "The inflation bias revisited: theory and some international evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 541-565, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "The Inflation Forecast and the Loss Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 3365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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