IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0793.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary Policy Transmission Effect On The Real Sector Of The Bangladesh Economy: An Svar Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Forhad, Abdur Rahman

    (Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, USA)

  • Homaifar, Ghassem A.

    (Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN, USA)

  • Salimullah, Abul Hasnat Muhammed

    (Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN, USA)

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission of Bangladesh using Structural Vector Autoregressive model (SVAR) for the period of 1972-2014. The SVAR model investigates how a monetary policy shock defined as an unexpected rise in interest rate affects real and nominal macro variables; namely real output, prices, real effective exchange rates, and money supply. Our results suggest that a monetary policy shock does have a short run effect on real output, price level, and exchange rates. A monetary policy shock generates inflationary pressure leading to a devaluation of the Bangladeshi Taka. This paper suggests that the policy makers, to consider the trade-off between output and interest rate of Bangladesh. L’effetto trasmissione della politica monetaria sul settore reale dell’economia del Bangladesh: un approccio SVAR Questo articolo esamina l’efficacia della politica monetaria del Bangladesh tramite il modello SVAR nel periodo 1972-2014. Tale modello esamina come uno shock di politica monetaria, definito come un aumento inatteso nel tasso di interesse, influenzi le macrovariabili reali e nominali: la produzione reale, il livello dei prezzi e del cambio reale effettivo, l’offerta di moneta. I risultati suggeriscono che uno shock di politica monetaria ha effetto nel breve periodo sulla produzione reale, sul livello dei prezzi e sui tassi di cambio. Uno shock di politica monetaria genera una pressione inflazionistica che porta ad una svalutazione del taka. Secondo questo studio i governi dovrebbero considerare il trade-off tra produzione e tasso di interesse nel Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Forhad, Abdur Rahman & Homaifar, Ghassem A. & Salimullah, Abul Hasnat Muhammed, 2017. "Monetary Policy Transmission Effect On The Real Sector Of The Bangladesh Economy: An Svar Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 70(1), pages 25-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0793
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iei1946.it/upload/rivista_articoli/allegati/65_forhadhomasalimricfinal.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Is Monetary Policy Effective during Financial Crises?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 573-577, May.
    3. Andreea ANDRIES, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Onto The Real Economy-A Literature Review," The USV Annals of Economics and Public Administration, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration, vol. 12(1(15)), pages 211-217, June.
    4. Ahmed , Shamim & Islam, Md. Ezazul, 2004. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Bangladesh: Bank Lending and Exchange Rate Channels," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 30(3-4), pages 31-88, Sept-Dec.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2011. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule During the Financial Crisis? Comparing Ex-post and Real Time Data with Real Time Forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 147-171, September.
    7. Homaifar, Ghassem A. & Zhang, Nan, 2008. "Long Run Relationship between Money, Output, and Inflation," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(4), pages 687-709.
    8. Abdur Chowdhury & Minh Dao & Abu Wahid, 1995. "Monetary policy, output and inflation in Bangladesh: a dynamic analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 51-55.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    10. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. de Leeuw, Frank & Gramlich, Edward M, 1969. "The Channels of Monetary Policy: A Further Report on the Federal Reserve-M.I.T. Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 265-290, May.
    12. Morten L. Bech & Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi, 2014. "Monetary Policy in a Downturn: Are Financial Crises Special?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 99-119, March.
    13. Tao Zha, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy: a primer," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 2), pages 26-43.
    14. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    15. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
    16. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    17. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, December.
    18. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    20. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    21. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    23. Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
    24. Stephen Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert Sonora, 1998. "Price Level Convergence Among United States Cities: Lessons for the European Central Bank," Working Papers 32, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    25. Jääskelä, Jarkko P. & Jennings, David, 2011. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate: Evaluation of VAR models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1358-1374.
    26. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
    27. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Sagarika Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2012. "An analysis of Fiji's monetary policy transmission," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(1), pages 52-70, March.
    28. James Tobin, 1970. "Money and Income: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 301-317.
    29. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198.
    30. Gramlich, Edward M, 1971. "The Usefulness of Monetary and Fiscal Policy as Discretionary Stabilization Tools," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 506-532, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amarasekara, Chandranath, 2008. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Inflation in Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 64866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    3. Pham The Anh, 2007. "Nominal Rigidities and The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in a Structural VAR Model," Working Papers 06, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    4. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
    6. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    7. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
    8. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2009. "VARMA models for Malaysian Monetary Policy Analysis," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2016. "Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 347-373, February.
    10. Rachid Ouchchikh, 2017. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in a Small Open Economy under Fixed Exchange Rate: An SVAR Approach for Morocco," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 11(1), pages 42-51, December.
    11. Kronick, Jeremy, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks from the EU and US: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 59416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    14. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Kim, Soyoung, 2002. "Exchange rate stabilization in the ERM: identifying European monetary policy reactions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 413-434, June.
    16. Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models for macroeconomic policy analysis," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 23, pages 555-572, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    18. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2008_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 253-270, September.
    21. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 268-296, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bangladesh; Monetary Policy; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0793. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.