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An analysis of Fiji's monetary policy transmission

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Author Info

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan
  • Seema Narayan
  • Sagarika Mishra
  • Russell Smyth

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the monetary policy transmission mechanism for the Fiji Islands using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model for the period 1975 to 2005. Design/methodology/approach – The SVAR model investigates how a monetary policy shock – defined as a temporary and exogenous rise in the short-term interest rate – affects real and nominal macro variables; namely real output, prices, exchange rates, and money supply. Findings – The results suggest that a monetary policy shock statistically significantly reduces output initially, but then output is able to recover to its pre-shock level. A monetary policy shock generates inflationary pressure, leads to an appreciation of the Fijian currency and reduces the demand for money. The paper also analysed the impact of a nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) shock (an appreciation) on real output and found that it leads to a statistically significant negative effect on real output. Practical implications – The findings of this study should be of direct relevance to the research and policy work undertaken at the Reserve Bank of Fiji. Originality/value – For a small economy, such as Fiji, where monetary policy is key to sustainable macroeconomic management, this is the first paper that undertakes a dynamic analysis of monetary policy transmission. The paper uses time series data over three decades and builds a structural VAR model, rooted in theory. This paper will be of direct relevance to the Reserve Bank of Fiji. The approach and model proposed will also be useful for applied monetary policy researchers in other developing countries where inflation rate targeting is a key element of the monetary policy setting.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Studies in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 52-70

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Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:29:y:2012:i:1:p:52-70

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Related research

Keywords: Developing countries; Fiji; Monetary policy; Structural VAR model;

References

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Magnus Saxegaard, 2006. "Excess Liquidity and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 06/115, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Burak Dogan & Hakan Berument, 2002. "Opennes and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy : Empirical Evidence from Turkey," Departmental Working Papers 0204, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest rate effects on output: evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  4. Disyatat, Piti & Vongsinsirikul, Pinnarat, 2003. "Monetary policy and the transmission mechanism in Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 389-418, June.
  5. Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xinhua & Liu, Shiguo, 2005. "Modeling monetary transmission and policy in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 157-175, March.
  6. Elbourne, Adam & de Haan, Jakob, 2006. "Financial structure and monetary policy transmission in transition countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-23, March.
  7. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
  8. R. Golinelli & R. Rovelli, 2001. "Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries," Working Papers 429, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  9. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 231-272, April.
  10. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  11. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
  12. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad, 2008. "Are shocks to real effective exchange rates permanent or transitory? Evidence from Pacific Island countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 1053-1060.
  13. Chionis, Dionysios P. & Leon, Costas A., 2006. "Interest rate transmission in Greece: Did EMU cause a structural break?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 453-466, May.
  14. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
  15. Chong, Beng Soon & Liu, Ming-Hua & Shrestha, Keshab, 2006. "Monetary transmission via the administered interest rates channel," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1467-1484, May.
  16. P K Narayan & S Narayan, 2008. "Estimating the Demand for Money in an Unstable Open Economy: The Case of the Fiji Islands," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(1), pages 71-91, March.
  17. Abdur Chowdhury & Minh Dao & Abu Wahid, 1995. "Monetary policy, output and inflation in Bangladesh: a dynamic analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 51-55.
  18. T. Jayaraman & Chee-Keong Choong, 2009. "How does monetary policy transmission mechanism work in Fiji?," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 145-161, June.
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