Monetary Policy and Inflation in Brazil (1975-2000): a VAR Estimation
AbstractThis paper investigates monetary policy and basic macroeconomic relation-ships involving output, inflation rate, interest rate, and money in Brazil. Based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation, it compares three different periods: moderately increasing inflation (1975-1985), high inflation (1985-1994), and low inflation (1994-2000). The main results are the following: (1) monetary policy shocks have significant effects on output; (2) monetary policy shocks do not induce a reduction in the inflation rate in the first two periods, but there are indications that they have gained power to affect prices after the Real Plan was launched; (3) monetary policy does not usually respond rapidly or actively to inflation-rate and output innovations; (4) in the recent period, the interest rate responds intensely to financial crises; (5) positive interest-rate shocks are accompanied by a decline in money in all the three periods; (6) the degree of inflation persistence is substantially lower in the recent period.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 33.
Date of creation: Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Revista Brasileira de Economia, Vol. 57, no.3, pp. 605-635 (Jul-Sep 2003)
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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english
Other versions of this item:
- André Minella, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Inflation in Brazil (1975-2000): A VAR Estimation," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(3), pages 605-635, July.
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