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An Empirical Investigation of US Fiscal Expenditures and Macroeconomic Outcomes

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  • Yunus Aksoy

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Giovanni Melina

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck, University of Surrey)

Abstract

In addition to containing stable information to explain inflation, state-local expenditures have also a larger share of the forecast error variance of US inflation than the Federal funds rate. Non-defense federal expenditures are useful in predicting real output variations and, starting from the early 1980s, present also a larger share of the forecast error variance of US real output than the Federal funds rate.

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File URL: http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/research/wp/2011/PDFs/BWPEF1105.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 1105.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1105

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Keywords: Information value; state-local expenditures; forecast error variance decomposition;

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  1. Sorensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 1999. "Output Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy: US State and Local Governments 1978-1994," CEPR Discussion Papers 2286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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