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Investigating fluctuations in U.S. manufacturing : what are the direct effects of informational frictions?

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WenLi Li
Pierre-Daniel Sarte

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Abstract

In this paper, we explore how informational frictions in credit markets directly affect U.S. manufacturing fluctuations. Within the context of a dynamic industry model, we propose a strategy for identifying intermediation costs related to informational asymmetries between lenders and borrowers. The analysis suggests that these costs have been steadily falling over the post-war period. We also present evidence that changes in the cost of intermediation should directly affect output, as opposed to just propagating the effects of other shocks. Finally, we find that the relative share of output fluctuations explained by financial innovations increases monotonically over time. Therefore, policy changes that reduce financial frictions, and thereby increase output, are likely to be most effective in the long run.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 00-01.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:00-01

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Related research
Keywords: Business cycles;

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  1. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Organizational flexibility and employment dynamics at young and old plants," Working Paper Series WP-98-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  7. Robert Townsend, 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Staff Report 45, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2002. "Does Distance Still Matter? The Information Revolution in Small Business Lending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2533-2570, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1991. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," NBER Working Papers 3892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Gale, Douglas & Hellwig, Martin, 1985. "Incentive-Compatible Debt Contracts: The One-Period Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 647-63, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Kugler, Peter & Neusser, K, 1993. "International Real Interest Rate Equalization: A Multivariate Time-Series Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 163-74, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Fredric S. Mishkin & Philip E. Strahan, 1999. "What Will Technology Do to Financial Structure?," NBER Working Papers 6892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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