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The Comovement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Norden, Lars
  • Weber, Martin
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    Abstract

    This Paper analyses the empirical relationship between credit default swap, bond and stock markets during the period 2000-02. Focusing on the intertemporal comovement, we examine weekly and daily lead-lag relationships in a vector autoregressive model and the adjustment between markets caused by cointegration. First, we find that stock returns lead CDS and bond spread changes. Second, CDS spread changes Granger cause bond spread changes for a higher number of firms than vice versa. Third, the CDS market is significantly more sensitive to the stock market than the bond market and the magnitude of this sensitivity increases when credit quality becomes worse. Finally, the CDS market plays a more important role for price discovery than the corporate bond market.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4674.

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    Date of creation: Oct 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4674

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    Related research

    Keywords: credit derivatives; credit risk; credit spreads; lead-lag relationship;

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    Cited by:
    1. Nathalie Rey, 2007. "Les dérivés de crédit : instruments de couverture et facteurs d'instabilité. L'exemple des « Credit Default Swap »," Post-Print halshs-00195901, HAL.
    2. : Haitao Li & Weina Zhang & Gi H. Kim, 2011. "The CDS-Bond Basis Arbitrage and the Cross Section of Corporate Bond Returns," Working Papers wpn11-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    3. Yi-Hsuan Chen & Kehluh Wang & Anthony Tu, 2011. "Default correlation at the sovereign level: evidence from some Latin American markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(11), pages 1399-1411.
    4. Niels C. Thygesen & Robert N. McCauley & Guonan Ma & William R. White & Jakob de Haan & Willem van den End & Jon Frost & Christiaan Pattipeilohy & Mostafa Tabbae & Ernest Gnan & Morten Balling & Paul , 2013. "50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume - 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 1 edited by Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan.
    5. Sorin Gabriel Anton, 2011. "The Local Determinants Of Emerging Market Sovereign Cds Spreads In The Context Of The Debt Crisis. An Explanatory Study "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 41-52, november.
    6. M. Kabir Hassan & Geoffrey M. Ngene & Jung Suk-Yu, 2011. "Credit Default Swaps and Sovereign Debt Markets," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-03, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    7. Debora Revoltella & Fabio Mucci & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2010. "Properly pricing country risk: a model for pricing long-term fundamental risk applied to central and eastern European countries," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 219-245.
    8. Byström, Hans, 2013. "Stock Prices and Stock Return Volatilities Implied by the Credit Market," Working Papers 2013:25, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 13 Sep 2013.

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