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Directional and bidirectional causality between U.S. industry credit and stock markets and their determinants

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  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain
  • Nor, Safwan Mohd
  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad

Abstract

We examine the causal links between U.S. industry-wise credits and stock markets. The full sample bootstrap Granger causality results show that all stock markets Granger cause their CDS counterparts and there is also bidirectional causality for the banking, healthcare and material industries. The short-run parametric stability tests highlight that the full sample parameters are not stable and hence less reliable. The bootstrap rolling window estimations confirm the inconsistency in the CDS-stock causality relationships where bidirectional causalities are also found between the credit and stock markets that vary over different sub-samples. Finally, we analyze the impact of different financial and macroeconomic determinants on the CDS-stock causality through a probit model. Overall, the business conditions, stock market volatility, default premiums, Treasury bond rate and the slope of the yield curve are major drivers of the CDS-stock nexus. Our findings provide possible explanation for varying and mixed previous empirical findings in the existing literature, and hence have useful investment implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Directional and bidirectional causality between U.S. industry credit and stock markets and their determinants," MPRA Paper 74705, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Oct 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74705
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    2. Laura Ballester & Ana González-Urteaga, 2020. "Is There a Connection between Sovereign CDS Spreads and the Stock Market? Evidence for European and US Returns and Volatilities," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-34, September.
    3. Guesmi, Khaled & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Goutte, Stéphane & Abid, Ilyes, 2018. "On the determinants of industry-CDS index spreads: Evidence from a nonlinear setting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-254.
    4. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Mensi, Walid & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Examining the efficiency and interdependence of US credit and stock markets through MF-DFA and MF-DXA approaches," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 351-363.
    5. Laura Ballester & Ana Mónica Escrivá & Ana González-Urteaga, 2021. "The Nexus between Sovereign CDS and Stock Market Volatility: New Evidence," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-23, May.
    6. Jiang, Yong & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2021. "Do credit conditions matter for the impact of oil price shocks on stock returns? Evidence from a structural threshold VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Mohd Irfan & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2022. "Low-carbon energy strategies and financial development in developing economies: investigating long-run influence of credit and equity market development," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1-26, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swap; stock; bootstrap rolling windows; Granger non-causality; Probit.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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