Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Exploring for the Determinants of Credit Risk in Credit Default Swap Transaction Data: Is Fixed-Income Markets’ Information Suffcient to Evaluate Credit Risk?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Didier Cossin

    (HEC-University of Lausanne, IMD and FAME)

  • Tomas Hricko

    (HEC-University of Lausanne and Fame)

  • Daniel Aunon-Nerin

    (HEC-University of Lausanne and Fame)

  • Zhijiang Huang

    (HEC-University of Lausanne and Fame)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We investigate the influence of various fundamental variables on a cross-section of credit default swap transaction data. Credit default swap rates can be seen as a superior proxy to credit risk than bond spreads are. Because we have transaction prices rather than quotes, we have thus observations of financial markets’ assessment of credit risk. Therefore our findings are relevant not only for the understanding of credit default swaps but for credit risk in general. The fundamental variables include fixed-income market data such as ratings, interest rate data and bond spreads as well as equity market data such as variance and market leverage (so called ” structural variables ”). We test for the stability of the influence of the different fundamental variables along several lines. We find evidence that most of the variables predicted by credit risk pricing theories have a significant impact on the observed levels of credit default prices. We also provide an international analysis of corporate credit risk, as half of our corporate sample is not US based, as well as some re-sults on sovereign credit risk. Using this information we are able to explain a significant portion of the cross-sectional variation in our sample with adjusted R 2 reaching 82% using the variables predicted by classical theoretical models. However there are important behavioral differences between high rated and low rated underlyings, sovereign and corporate underlyings and underlyings from different markets (US vs no US). We analyze these differences. We also find evidence of behavioral, momentum-like issues in equity markets-credit risk relationships. Overall, strong results show the importance of considering so called ”structural variables ” and equity market information as well as stochastic interest rates along with classical ratings when pricing credit risk overall. Furthermore, and contrarily to previous results, equity market information seems to matter for both high and low ratings, albeit in different ways. We implement a reduced-form model and analyze the errors obtained. Equity market variables seem to explain a large part of the errors. Overall, we document the importance of taking into account equity markets when doing credit risk analysis.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.swissfinanceinstitute.ch/rp65.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering in its series FAME Research Paper Series with number rp65.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Dec 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp65

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 40 bd. du Pont d'Arve, Case postale 3, CH - 1211 Geneva 4
    Phone: 41 22 / 312 09 61
    Fax: 41 22 / 312 10 26
    Web page: http://www.swissfinanceinstitute.ch
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Cossin, Didier & Pirotte, Hugues, 1997. "Swap credit risk: An empirical investigation on transaction data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1351-1373, October.
    2. Houweling, P. & Vorst, A.C.F., 2002. "An Empirical Comparison of Default Swap Pricing Models," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-23-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    3. Didier Cossin & Hugues Pirotte, 1998. "How well do classical credit risk pricing models fit swap transaction data?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(1), pages 65-77.
    4. Claessens, Stijn & Pennacchi, George, 1996. "Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 109-126, March.
    5. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
    7. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    8. Klein, Peter, 1996. "Pricing Black-Scholes options with correlated credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1211-1229, August.
    9. Kaufold, Howard & Smirlock, Michael, 1991. "The impact of credit risk on the pricing and duration of floating-rate notes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 43-52, February.
    10. Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
    11. Pinches, George E & Singleton, J Clay, 1978. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Bond Rating Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 29-44, March.
    12. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
    13. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
    14. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
    15. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 2000. "A Discrete-Time Approach to Arbitrage-Free Pricing of Credit Derivatives," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 46-62, January.
    16. Gregory D. Sutton, 1998. "Spread overreaction in international bond markets," BIS Working Papers 55, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Blumenstock, Hendrik & von Grone, Udo & Mehlhorn, Marc & Merkl, Johannes & Pietz, Marcus, 2012. "Einflussfaktoren von CDS-Spreads als Maß für das aktuelle Bonitätsrisiko: Liefert das Rating eine Erklärung?," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-03, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
    2. Clothilde Lesplingart & Christophe Majois & Mikael Petitjean, 2012. "Liquidity and CDS premiums on European companies around the Subprime crisis," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 257-281, October.
    3. Manmohan Singh & Jochen R. Andritzky, 2006. "The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress," IMF Working Papers 06/254, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Naifar, Nader, 2012. "Modeling the dependence structure between default risk premium, equity return volatility and the jump risk: Evidence from a financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 119-131.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marilyn Barja).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.