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Emerging Market Debt: Measuring Credit Quality and Examining Relative Pricing

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  • Cumby, Robert
  • Pastine, Tuvana

Abstract

We investigate the pricing of ‘Brady’ bonds that are issued by the governments of five developing countries as part of debt and debt service reduction agreements. We first present a measure of credit quality that takes account of the individual features of each bond and is comparable across bonds, across issuers, and over time. We then examine the evolution of the credit quality of each debt instrument from 1990 until the beginning of 2000. Next, we present evidence of a profitable trading strategy that exploits the information contained in this measure of credit quality.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2866.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2866

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Keywords: brady bonds; default risk; market efficiency; mispricing; sovereign debt;

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References

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  1. Raquel Fernandez & Sule Ozler, 1991. "Debt Concentration and Secondary Markets Prices: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Wu, Chunchi & Yu, Chih-Hsien, 1996. "Risk aversion and the yield of corporate debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 267-281, March.
  3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  4. Claessens, Stijn & Pennacchi, George, 1996. "Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 109-126, March.
  5. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
  6. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
  7. Stone, Mark R., 1991. "Are sovereign debt secondary market returns sensitive to macroeconomic fundamentals? Evidence from the contemporary and interwar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S100-S122, March.
  8. Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
  9. Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
  10. Sachs, J. & Huizinga, H.P., 1987. "U.S. commercial banks and the developing-country debt crisis," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-155106, Tilburg University.
  11. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Megginson, William L, 1990. " Determinants of Secondary Market Prices for Developing Country Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1517-40, December.
  12. Yawitz, Jess B., 1977. "An Analytical Model of Interest Rate Differentials and Different Default Recoveries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 481-490, September.
  13. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1989. "Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 911, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Yawitz, Jess B & Maloney, Kevin J & Ederington, Louis H, 1985. " Taxes, Default Risk, and Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1127-40, September.
  15. Bierman, Harold & Hass, Jerome E., 1975. "An Analytical Model of Bond Risk Differentials," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 757-773, December.
  16. Sule Ozler & Harry Huizinga, 1992. "Bank Exposure, Capital and Secondary Market Discounts on the Developing Country Debt," NBER Working Papers 3961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Lee, Suk Hun & Sung, Hyun Mo & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1996. "The behavior of secondary market prices of LDC syndicated loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 537-554, April.
  18. In Joon Kim & Krishna Ramaswamy & Suresh Sundaresan, 1993. "Does Default Risk in Coupons Affect the Valuation of Corporate Bonds?: A Contingent Claims Model," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Peter Benczur & Cosmin Ilut, 2011. "Evidence for Dynamic Contracts in Sovereign Bank Lending," Working Papers 11-06, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  2. Ron Alquist, 2008. "How Important Is Liquidity Risk for Sovereign Bond Risk Premia? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Working Papers 08-47, Bank of Canada.
  3. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2008. "Multiple Potential Payers and Sovereign Bond Prices," Working Papers CEB 08-011.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Cosmin Ilut & Peter Benczur, 2010. "Evidence for Relational Contracts in Sovereign Bank Lending," 2010 Meeting Papers 91, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2005. "Entre la peste et le choléra: le détenteur d'obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6693, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Oshiro, Naoto & Saruwatari, Yasufumi, 2005. "Quantification of sovereign risk: Using the information in equity market prices," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 346-362, December.
  7. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Kim Oosterlinck, 2005. "Entre la peste et le choléra : le détenteur d’obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut…," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 79(2), pages 309-331.
  8. Marc D. Weidenmier & Kim Oosterlinck, 2007. "Victory or Repudiation? The Probability of the Southern Confederacy Winning the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 13567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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