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Emerging Market Debt: Measuring Credit Quality and Examining Relative Pricing

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Author Info
Cumby, Robert
Pastine, Tuvana

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Abstract

We investigate the pricing of ‘Brady’ bonds that are issued by the governments of five developing countries as part of debt and debt service reduction agreements. We first present a measure of credit quality that takes account of the individual features of each bond and is comparable across bonds, across issuers, and over time. We then examine the evolution of the credit quality of each debt instrument from 1990 until the beginning of 2000. Next, we present evidence of a profitable trading strategy that exploits the information contained in this measure of credit quality.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2866.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2866

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Related research
Keywords: brady bonds; default risk; market efficiency; mispricing; sovereign debt;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Wu, Chunchi & Yu, Chih-Hsien, 1996. "Risk aversion and the yield of corporate debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 267-281, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jeffrey Sachs & Harry Huizinga, 1987. "U.S. Commercial Banks and the Developing Country Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 2455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Yawitz, Jess B & Maloney, Kevin J & Ederington, Louis H, 1985. " Taxes, Default Risk, and Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1127-40, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lee, Suk Hun & Sung, Hyun Mo & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1996. "The behavior of secondary market prices of LDC syndicated loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 537-554, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Yawitz, Jess B., 1977. "An Analytical Model of Interest Rate Differentials and Different Default Recoveries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 481-490, September. [Downloadable!]
  6. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Megginson, William L, 1990. " Determinants of Secondary Market Prices for Developing Country Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1517-40, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. " Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Raquel Fernandez & Sule Ozler, 1991. "Debt Concentration and Secondary Markets Prices: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bierman, Harold & Hass, Jerome E., 1975. "An Analytical Model of Bond Risk Differentials," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 757-773, December. [Downloadable!]
  11. Sule Ozler & Harry Huizinga, 1992. "Bank Exposure, Capital and Secondary Market Discounts on the Developing Country Debt," NBER Working Papers 3961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Stone, Mark R., 1991. "Are sovereign debt secondary market returns sensitive to macroeconomic fundamentals? Evidence from the contemporary and interwar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S100-S122, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Claessens, Stijn & Pennacchi, George, 1996. "Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 109-126, March. [Downloadable!]
  15. Hajivassiliou, V. A., 1989. "Do the secondary markets believe in life after debt?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 252, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Andrew Berg & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "The Debt Crisis: Structural Explanations of Country Performance," NBER Working Papers 2607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marc D. Weidenmier & Kim Oosterlinck, 2007. "Victory or Repudiation? The Probability of the Southern Confederacy Winning the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 13567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2004. "Entre la peste et le choléra Le détenteur d’obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut…," Working Papers CEB 04-021.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  3. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2008. "Multiple Potential Payers and Sovereign Bond Prices," Working Papers 75, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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