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Multiple Potential Payers and Sovereign Bond Prices

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Author Info
Kim Oosterlinck () (Universite Libre de Bruxelles)
Loredana Ureche-Rangau () (Universite de Picardie)

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Abstract

Sovereign bonds are usually priced under the assumption that only the sovereign issuer may be responsible of their repayment. In some cases however, bondholders may legitimately expect to be repaid by more than one agent. For example, when a country breaks-up, successor states may agree to recognize their responsibility for part of the debt. Other extreme events, such as repudiations, may lead (and have led) bondholders to consider several bailout candidates at the same point in time. This paper first discusses the theoretical financial implications stemming from an infrequent and challenging situation, namely the existence of multiple potential payers. Then, through a historical precedent, the 1918 Russian repudiation, the paper confirms that the existence of multiple potential payers has a diversification effect which lowers the volatility of the bond price and increases its value. These results are strengthened by a comparison with a closely related standard case of default.

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File URL: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper200875.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 75.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:75

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Web page: http://www.bankofgreece.gr
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Related research
Keywords: Sovereign bonds; Repudiation; Default; Portfolio diversification; Multiple payers; Russia; Romania; Financial history.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fishlow, Albert, 1985. "Lessons from the past: capital markets during the 19th century and the interwar period," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(03), pages 383-439, June. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Andrei Shleifer, 2003. "Will The Sovereign Debt Market Survive?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2000, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cumby, Robert & Pastine, Tuvana, 2001. "Emerging Market Debt: Measuring Credit Quality and Examining Relative Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 2866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Steven B. Kamin, 2004. "Identifying the Role of Moral Hazard in International Financial Markets," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 25-59, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2004. "Empire, Public Goods, and the Roosevelt Corollary," NBER Working Papers 10729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. John Landon-Lane & Kim Oosterlinck, 2005. "Hope springs eternal… French bondholders and the Soviet Repudiation (1915-1919)," Departmental Working Papers 200513, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Brealey, R. A. & Kaplanis, E., 2004. "The impact of IMF programs on asset values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 253-270, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Paolo Manasse & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Merrick Jr., John J., 2001. "Crisis dynamics of implied default recovery ratios: Evidence from Russia and Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1921-1939, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Schnabel, Isabel & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2006. "How Do Official Bailouts Affect the Risk of Investing in Emerging Markets?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1689-1714, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fishlow, Albert, 1985. "Lessons from the Past: Capital Markets during the 19th Century and the Interwar Period," International Organization, MIT Press, vol. 39(3), pages 383-439, Summer.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sophia Lazaretou, 2008. "Banking and Central Banking in Pre-WWII Grecce: Money and Currency Developments," Working Papers 86, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  2. Oscar Bernal & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2008. "Observing bailout expectations during a total eclipse of the sun," Working Papers CEB 08-015.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Milan Sojic & Ljiljana Djurdjevic, 2008. "Monetary Policy Objectives and Istruments used by the Privileged National Bank of the Kingdom of Serbia (1884 - 1914)," Working Papers 87, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  4. Zarko Lazarevic, 2008. "Banking Performance in South-Eastern Europe During the Interwar Period," Working Papers 79, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alexander Apostolides, 2008. "How Similar to South-Eastern Europe were the Islands of Cyprus and Malta in terms of Agricultural Output and Credit? Evidence during the Interwar Period," Working Papers 80, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Yuksel Gormez, 2008. "Banking in Turkey: History and Evolution," Working Papers 83, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  7. Stephan Barisitz, 2008. "Banking Transformation (1989 - 2006) in Central and Eastern Europe - With Special Reference to Balkans," Working Papers 78, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  8. Roumen Avramov & Dragana Gnjatovic, 2008. "Stabilization Policies in Bulgaria and Yugoslavia During Communism's Terminal Years : 1980s Economic Visions in Retrospect," Working Papers 81, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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