IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bil/wpaper/0010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Emerging Market Debt : Measuring Credit Quality and Examining Relative Pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Tuvana Pastine
  • Robert E. Cumby

Abstract

We investigate the pricing of ?Brady? bonds that are issued by the governments of five developing countries as part of debt and debt service reduction agreements. We first present a measure of credit quality that takes account of the individual features of each bond and is comparable across bonds, across issuers, and over time. We then examine the evolution of the credit quality of each debt instrument from 1990 until the beginning of 2000. Next, we present evidence of a profitable trading strategy that exploits the information contained in this measure of credit quality.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Tuvana Pastine & Robert E. Cumby, 2000. "Emerging Market Debt : Measuring Credit Quality and Examining Relative Pricing," Working Papers 0010, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    • Handle: RePEc:bil:wpaper:0010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey Sachs & Harry Huizinga, 1987. "U.S. Commercial Banks and the Developing-Country Debt Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(2), pages 555-606.
    2. Lee, Suk Hun & Sung, Hyun Mo & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1996. "The behavior of secondary market prices of LDC syndicated loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 537-554, April.
    3. Yawitz, Jess B., 1977. "An Analytical Model of Interest Rate Differentials and Different Default Recoveries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 481-490, September.
    4. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Megginson, William L, 1990. "Determinants of Secondary Market Prices for Developing Country Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1517-1540, December.
    5. Claessens, Stijn & Pennacchi, George, 1996. "Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 109-126, March.
    6. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1989. "Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 911, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Yawitz, Jess B & Maloney, Kevin J & Ederington, Louis H, 1985. "Taxes, Default Risk, and Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1127-1140, September.
    9. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    10. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    11. Stone, Mark R., 1991. "Are sovereign debt secondary market returns sensitive to macroeconomic fundamentals? Evidence from the contemporary and interwar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages 100-122, March.
    12. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    13. Wu, Chunchi & Yu, Chih-Hsien, 1996. "Risk aversion and the yield of corporate debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 267-281, March.
    14. Bierman, Harold & Hass, Jerome E., 1975. "An Analytical Model of Bond Risk Differentials," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 757-773, December.
    15. Sule Ozler & Harry Huizinga, 1992. "Bank Exposure, Capital and Secondary Market Discounts on the Developing Country Debt," NBER Working Papers 3961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
    17. Fernandez, Raquel & Ozler, Sule, 1991. "Debt concentration and secondary market prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 570, The World Bank.
    18. Raquel Fernandez & Sule Ozler, 1991. "Debt Concentration and Secondary Markets Prices: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. In Joon Kim & Krishna Ramaswamy & Suresh Sundaresan, 1993. "Does Default Risk in Coupons Affect the Valuation of Corporate Bonds?: A Contingent Claims Model," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Péter Benczúr & Cosmin L. Ilut, 2016. "Evidence for Relational Contracts in Sovereign Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 375-404.
    2. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2004. "Entre la peste et le choléra: le détenteur d'obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut," Working Papers CEB 04-021.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Oshiro, Naoto & Saruwatari, Yasufumi, 2005. "Quantification of sovereign risk: Using the information in equity market prices," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 346-362, December.
    4. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2008. "Multiple Potential Payers and Sovereign Bond Prices," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 29(1), pages 31-52.
    5. Peter Benczur & Cosmin Ilut, 2011. "Evidence for Dynamic Contracts in Sovereign Bank Lending," Working Papers 11-06, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    6. Alquist, Ron, 2010. "How important is liquidity risk for sovereign bond risk premia? Evidence from the London stock exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 219-229, November.
    7. Marc D. Weidenmier & Kim Oosterlinck, 2007. "Victory or Repudiation? The Probability of the Southern Confederacy Winning the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 13567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kim Oosterlinck & Loredana Ureche-Rangau, 2005. "Entre la peste et le choléra : le détenteur d’obligations peut préférer la répudiation au défaut…," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 79(2), pages 309-331.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2001. "Secondary market efficiency for LDC bank loans and international private lending, 1985-1993," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 549-562, August.
    2. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Augusto Castillo, 2004. "Firm and Corporate Bond Valuation: A Simulation Dynamic Programming Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(124), pages 345-360.
    5. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    6. Batten, Jonathan & Hogan, Warren, 2002. "A perspective on credit derivatives," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 251-278.
    7. Tsung-Kang Chen & Hsien-Hsing Liao & Chia-Wu Lu, 2011. "A flow-based corporate credit model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 517-532, May.
    8. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011.
    9. International Association of Deposit Insurers, 2011. "Evaluation of Deposit Insurance Fund Sufficiency on the Basis of Risk Analysis," IADI Research Papers 11-11, International Association of Deposit Insurers.
    10. Stephan Dieckmann & Michael Gallmeyer, 2006. "Pricing Rare Event Risk in Emerging Markets," 2006 Meeting Papers 305, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Batten, Jonathan & Hogan, Warren & In, Francis, 2002. "Valuing Credit Spreads on Quality Australian Dollar Eurobonds in a Multivariate EGARCH Framework," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 115-128, March.
    12. Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 2003. "Valuing Corporate Liabilities," SIFR Research Report Series 15, Institute for Financial Research.
    13. Sheen X. Liu & Howard Qi & Chunchi Wu, 2006. "Personal Taxes, Endogenous Default, and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(6), pages 939-954, June.
    14. Didier Cossin & Tomas Hricko & Daniel Aunon-Nerin & Zhijiang Huang, 2002. "Exploring for the Determinants of Credit Risk in Credit Default Swap Transaction Data: Is Fixed-Income Markets’ Information Suffcient to Evaluate Credit Risk?," FAME Research Paper Series rp65, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    15. Alan Alford & Jacques Lussier, 1993. "An Examination of the Price Discount on the External Debt of Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 713-724, November.
    16. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    17. Jonathan Batten & Warren Hogan & Francis In, 2002. "Valuing Credit Spreads on Quality Australian Dollar Eurobonds in a Multivariate EGARCH Framework," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 115-128, March.
    18. Guha, R. & Sbuelz, A., 2003. "Structural RFV : Recovery Form and Defaultable Debt Analysis," Other publications TiSEM 841ad1ef-22f2-4ea8-b19b-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Guha, R. & Sbuelz, A., 2003. "Structural RFV : Recovery Form and Defaultable Debt Analysis," Discussion Paper 2003-37, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    20. Lee, Suk Hun & Sung, Hyun Mo & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1996. "The behavior of secondary market prices of LDC syndicated loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 537-554, April.
    21. Jeremy Leake, 2003. "Credit spreads on sterling corporate bonds and the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 202, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bil:wpaper:0010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: C Pakel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/debiltr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.